Submitted by rsteel on
Over the next month the college football bowl games will be played culminating with the playoff format to determine a champion.
Handicapping bowl games is a totally different beast than handicapping games during the regular season.
Look to play ON double digit underdogs in the minor bowl games. If you are a big favorite in a game like this it indicates more was expected from you this season and this bowl game is a disappointment. The larger the underdog in games like this the greater the motivation and reward to actually be playing in a bowl game.
With weeks to prepare for the game coaching becomes a bigger factor. Look at teams to play AGAINST that already have or about to make changes in their coaching staff especially at the coordinator level.
Look for teams with a high profile player(s) looking to enter the NFL draft wanting to make an extra good impression on the national stage.
Look for teams that have already checked out vs. teams that still have something to prove.
Regular season results and stats are minor factors compared to the mental state and motivations of the 2 teams. Look for teams and/or kids on the roster that are playing close to home.
As I always stress the above are additional tools to use when handicapping bowl games. However as with ALL bets you need multiple reasons why to bet on or against a team. Also realize there will always be issues pointing in the other direction opposite to your bet. Your job is to ensure you have enough value on your side to compensate for the risk factors. Never when you analyze any game do you have ALL the arrows pointing in one direction.