Submitted by rsteel on
Is it disgusting how we got here YES! Is MLB a hot mess YES! Are the rule changes in my opinion bad for the game YES! Regardless on July 23rd we will be playing ball for real and we will be able to handicap and bet. Is this cause for celebration? YES! YES! YES!
2019 was an improvement over 2018 MLB betting season but that is not saying much. The second half of 2019 was much better as I continue to adjust adapt handicapping techniques to the changes the way the game is being played. Using openers, stud pitchers going 6 innings max, strikeouts moving runners who cares, emphasis on the home run etc. Believe me I have already made the adjustments I feel necessary to have a profitable 2020 based on changes in the game more than betting market conditions. Secondly I anticipate this year many more early morning bets as to maximize line value as last year too many times the market moved games out of our value range. So when necessary we will jump in early. In other words I need to time the market more effectively.
This is usually where I talk about how baseball is such a marathon not a sprint. However this year it will be just the opposite. Teams will play 60 games in 66 days to determine who gets into the playoffs.
Other rule changes and issues to look out for. Regardless of the delay this item was a new rule. A pitcher brought into the game will have to face a minimum of 3 batters. This in my opinion sucks and is ridiculous but we do not get a vote. So how does this impact us from a betting perspective? Well bullpen handicapping is huge more so than ever this new rule will make it even more impactful. Deep talented rested bullpens, relief pitchers that can get lefties and righties out etc. all important factors. I also believe this will lead to higher scoring games.
60 games 66 days there will be no throw away games for managers. Look for managers to extend pitchers and pull out all stops as if each game is a playoff game. Universal DH will be used. Another rule change I really hope is just for this season is if a game goes to extra innings to start each inning a runner will be placed at second to avoid games going 15+ innings. This year as well with the unbalanced condensed schedule put more emphasis on strength of competition when evaluating teams.
Always always bet LISTED pitchers unless I specify differently in my game analysis. Make sure you read each game analysis which you should already be doing in every sport anyway. This will ensure that from the time we place our bet to the time the games goes off if something were to happen to either starting pitcher and he does not throw at least one pitch to start the game our bet will be refunded. The last thing I want is to risk money based on a pitching change that I did not handicap. However there will be times when we are on the dog that we will ONLY specify our pitcher in the remote chance the better pitcher we are betting against does not start. Make sure whatever book you are dealing with allows you the option to just specify one pitcher or you simply should not be dealing with that book.
Pinnacle if you are outside the U.S. or 5dimes in the U.S are must have sports books for the long baseball season. Simply click on the banner FROM my website and sign up if you do not already have an account there. This will ensure the sports book knows where you are coming from. Very important NEVER deal with a sports book that is offering greater than a dime line for baseball.
Realize especially this season there will be many different first pitch times. Your job at the beginning of everyday is to know the various times games start. To ensure you NEVER miss a bet it is critical you follow me on Instagram Twitter Facebook @ricksteel99. If you are using my app make sure your notifications are turned on. Also make sure the notifications are turned on from twitter as well. There will be times where you have less than 1 hour to place your bet after receiving the alert. I do not place a bet until I have a high degree of confidence of the starting line ups and who is being rested. This year I believe the starting line ups could be even more volatile.
As like any other time of the year there will be days where we will bet our plays in stages in order to get the best line.
Shop, shop, shop for the best line available. You do not want to bet a game at -1.40 when it is available at -1.32. You do not want to bet a game at +1.12 when it is available at +1.19. Regardless of the $ amount of your unit even one cent differences in the line over the course of a season results in substantial dollars left on the table. It could mean the difference between a winning and losing season. In fact if the line has moved too much from when I released the pick and you waited too long to bet it that play may not even have value any longer.
If you are not getting the lines I am betting at, there are likely 2 main reasons. You did not bet the play soon enough after I released it (remember we deal in a fluid marketplace lines are moving all the time) OR you are not shopping at enough sports books to guarantee yourself the best line possible. If you are betting at a book that is dealing baseball lines at more than 10 cent spreads you might as well STOP right now. You WILL NOT win long term under those conditions and you are simply giving your money away. There is NO reason to deal with a book like that when there are plenty other books dealing much more advantageous lines like Pinnacle and 5dimes to just mention two.
You should have sports book accounts at ALL the books listed on my site where you can open an account depending on where you are living. Open your accounts FROM the banners/text links of my site so the sports book knows where you are coming from. I highly encourage this for YOUR benefit NOT mine.
If anyone has any questions about the above info do not hesitate to contact
LET’S PLAY BALL!