Submitted by rsteel on
We are now less than 2 weeks away from the start of the regular season of MLB. YAHOO!
Baseball represents the highest dollar amount EVERY year (exclusive of Covid) of our total dollars bet. There are 2,592 regular season games in a normal year. This volume far exceeds any other sport providing us with the most betting opportunities.
Baseball also has a tendency to be streakier than any other sport we bet. It is a long long season a marathon not a sprint. There will be extended winning and losing streaks. Stay on an even keel buckle up the ride will be well worth it.
2020 was an improvement over 2019 MLB betting season (despite the upheaval shortened season.) 2019 MLB betting was an improvement over 2018. What will 2021 MLB bring us?
I continue to adjust adapt handicapping techniques to the changes the way the game is being played. Using openers, stud pitchers going 6 innings max, strikeouts moving runners who cares, emphasis on the home run etc. Believe me I have already made more adjustments I feel necessary to have a profitable 2021 based on changes in the game more than betting market conditions. Secondly I continue to anticipate more early morning bets as to maximize line value as last year too many times the market moved games out of our value range. So when necessary we will jump in early. In other words I need to time the market more effectively.
A pitcher brought into the game will have to face a minimum of 3 batters. This change from last year is here to stay. This in my opinion sucks and is ridiculous but we do not get a vote. So how does this impact us from a betting perspective? Well bullpen handicapping is huge more so than ever this new rule will make it even more impactful. Deep talented rested bullpens, relief pitchers that can get lefties and righties out etc. all important factors. I also believe this will lead to higher scoring games.
Universal DH that was in place for the shortened season is gone. Two changes from last year which will remain at least for 1 more year is if a game goes to extra innings to start each inning a runner will be placed at second to avoid games going 15+ innings. Double headers will also remain at 7 inning games.
Always always bet LISTED pitchers unless I specify differently in my game analysis. Make sure you read each game analysis which you should already be doing in every sport anyway. This will ensure that from the time we place our bet to the time the games goes off if something were to happen to either starting pitcher and he does not throw at least one pitch to start the game our bet will be refunded. The last thing I want is to risk money based on a pitching change that I did not handicap. However there will be times when we are on the dog that we will ONLY specify our pitcher in the remote chance the better pitcher we are betting against does not start. Make sure whatever book you are dealing with allows you the option to just specify one pitcher or you simply should not be dealing with that book.
Pinnacle if you are outside the U.S. or Bookmaker Bet on line in the U.S is must have sports books for the long baseball season. Simply click on the banner FROM my website and sign up if you do not already have an account there. This will ensure the sports book knows where you are coming from. Very important NEVER deal with a sports book that is offering greater than a dime line for baseball.
Realize especially this season there will be many different first pitch times. Your job at the beginning of everyday is to know the various times games start. To ensure you NEVER miss a bet it is critical you follow me on Instagram Twitter Facebook @ricksteel99. If you are using my app make sure your notifications are turned on. Also make sure the notifications are turned on from twitter as well. There will be times where you have less than 1 hour to place your bet after receiving the alert. I do not place a bet until I have a high degree of confidence of the starting line ups and who is being rested. This year I believe the starting line ups could be even more volatile. Day games after night games and Sunday’s have the greatest fluctuations in starting line ups.
As like any other time of the year there will be days where we will bet our plays in stages in order to get the best line.
Shop, shop, shop for the best line available. You do not want to bet a game at -1.40 when it is available at -1.32. You do not want to bet a game at +1.12 when it is available at +1.19. Regardless of the $ amount of your unit even one cent differences in the line over the course of a season results in substantial dollars left on the table. It could mean the difference between a winning and losing season. In fact if the line has moved too much from when I released the pick and you waited too long to bet it that play may not even have value any longer.That applies to all sports and bets I make.
If you are not getting the lines I am betting at, there are likely 2 main reasons. You did not bet the play soon enough after I released it (remember we deal in a fluid marketplace lines are moving all the time) OR you are not shopping at enough sports books to guarantee yourself the best line possible. If you are betting at a book that is dealing baseball lines at more than 10 cent spreads you might as well STOP right now. You WILL NOT win long term under those conditions and you are simply giving your money away. There is NO reason to deal with a book like that when there are plenty other books dealing much more advantageous lines like Pinnacle and Bet on line to just mention two.
You should have sports book accounts at ALL the books listed on my site where you can open an account depending on where you are living. Open your accounts FROM the banners/text links of my site so the sports book knows where you are coming from. I highly encourage this for YOUR benefit NOT mine.
If anyone has any questions about the above info do not hesitate to contact.
LET’S PLAY BALL!