Submitted by rsteel on
When analyzing the statistics of bad teams remember they are actually worse than what has been recorded. Good teams let up in the latter stages of a game; replace their starters for bench players or did not take the game from the start that seriously to begin with simply turning it on at the end to get the straight up win. However you will on certain occasions find a spot where the good team is going to focus for the full game. Perhaps they have a bye coming up or they are coming off a bad game and want to let out their frustrations getting their confidence back.
A common misconception in sports betting is that dogs represent the best betting opportunities. That is totally WRONG! A motivated favorite is by far the best betting opportunities that arise.
When you have 2 bad teams playing each other that is the time to try and take the dog. First off favored bad teams do not know how to close out games or for that matter how to win. Now you are asking them not only to win but by a margin. Secondly the dog bad team will be extremely motivated in this scenario since it is rare that they can actually win a game outright.
Do not ask teams to do something they do not do on a regular basis in order to win a bet.