Submitted by rsteel on
With the MLB season just under 2 weeks away now is a good time to mention a few items to look out for.
Remember there has been an important rule change this year. I think it is stupid but they do not ask my opinion. When a pitcher is brought into the game he must face a minimum of 3 batters. I anticipate this will lead to higher scoring games as far as the side we will have to monitor this situation as the season progresses but watching closely who is and is not available in the bullpen becomes even more important.
There is a sweet spot in MLB lines from -1.40-1.80 where the public is hesitant to lay the juice. Making picks in this range where appropriate is a common place to find value. In this area you find undervalued favorites which sometimes should be priced -2.00-2.50.
A pitcher who does not get strikeouts and/or ground balls is subject to big innings.
When betting totals look to play overs for the full 9 innings and unders for the 1st 5 innings as to not be exposed to the often unpredictable nature of bullpens.
On that same note the new trend in baseball is to get the starting pitcher through 6. Turn it over to the specialists for the last 9 outs. It is becoming more and more difficult for a team trailing after 6 to come back with how the back end of bullpens are now structured. So when you handicap a game and if for that play most of your value is tied up in the starting pitching match-up and/or you have a disadvantage in the bullpen bet the game for only the first 5 innings if there is value in that line as opposed to the full game.
An MLB team seeing the same pitcher a second time over a short time span the advantage goes to the hitters especially with a young pitcher who has not learned how to make adjustments yet.
Warmer weather ball travels better=more runs. Day games batters see ball better=more runs. Games starting at 4-5 PM local time shadows have a big impact half of the game= less runs.
The way MLB is played these days a HUGE chunk of your handicapping should be focused on the bullpen. Specifically the closer, set up men, recent usage and effectiveness.
Remember when handicapping any game in any sport there is NEVER only 1 reason to make a bet. For every game analysis you have to open up your full tool box of handicapping techniques to determine if there are enough factors in your favor to create line value.
As we all know the majority of the baseball line set for a game is centered on the starting pitching. Always keep this in your thoughts as you are looking at games through the season. If the basis of your bets is the gap between starting pitcher A and starting pitcher B guess what this has already been taken into account in the line you have not found value. UNLESS you determine one or both of these pitchers are being over or undervalued by the marketplace.
You should also identify pitchers as we always like to say that have a reputation vs. reality aspect. Similar to a team concept a pitcher who has been very good for so long but now is in decline or having an off year. These guys will be over priced for some time until the markets catch up giving you ample opportunity to fade them for a while.
When you read my game analysis day in day out for the season you will have your own library of the techniques I use to handicap a baseball game. It will also detail if for this bet we will be only specifying 1 pitcher to start or action to have a bet. If I do not mention anything in the game analysis than both pitchers MUST start and be specified in order to have a valid bet.
If anyone has any questions about the MLB betting season feel free to contact me.