Submitted by rsteel on
We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. I will talk about this highly misunderstood word “value” in sports betting in an upcoming grapevine. In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before. Sports betting is nothing more than a market no different than with stocks or commodities.
Look for teams that are winning but when you search under the hood you find misleading results. Public focuses on results win/loss records but in the details under the hood is where you find value. For example:
Football a high positive turnover margin, consistently being outgained
Hockey consistently getting outshot or losing puck time of possession
Baseball a pitcher giving up many hits but a low ERA combined with a high strand %, and offensively a team stranding many runners on base.
Basketball high turnovers, inordinate amount of fouls called on the opposition.
All of the above are just a small amount of the issues that will cause a team not to be able to sustain their win/loss ratio. The public puts too much emphasis on win loss records and bets accordingly without delving deeper under the hood for temporary misleading results. Those conditions will have corrections to the mean. In other words look for teams in a positive or negative regression mode and bet accordingly. As the handicapper it is your job to find those spots and invest for or against BEFORE the corrections take place and the value is gone.