Submitted by rsteel on
We all know in sports betting there are NO situations that work all the time. There are also NO situations on their own without other reasons that would constitute a bet. Finding a spot that consistently wins 55% of the time well that is something to focus on.
You often hear people say I ONLY bet dogs. That is the only way to make money. That is ridiculous. First of all you are eliminating half of the possible bets by ignoring favorites. Give me a motivated favorite who obviously has more talent, I know is going to show up and play full out beginning to end; is by FAR the best bet you can find. Perhaps the favorite is on a bounce back, revenge, and must win etc. this along with supporting mathematical evidence will constitute a very good value bet.
A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.
Another myth is that you can be successful simply being a situational handicapper based on if a game fits a certain category. Remember angles such as revenge, must wins are very overrated however when they apply on a team that is clearly better they do have relevance. I believe as I always mention any one situation on its’ own has absolutely no value. You need a number of compelling factors including the math to support making a bet. For example just because this game has revenge factor who says the team that lost before is extra motivated this time to win and cover. They could be complacent off a divisional game they may have injuries or a big look ahead game on deck etc. many potential reasons why revenge may not be a factor.
Being a grinder and value bettor the next best bet is your home dog where appropriate. A home dog that is well coached well rested playing a favorite that is over confident in a sandwich game or who just wants to win and go home this is a good bet. Home dogs rarely give up. Road teams quit all the time. Favorites let up all the time leading to back door covers. Home underdogs will almost always have your ticket in play right until the end.
I am often asked can team A cover the spread of example 11.5 over team B. My answer is always the same. If they are favored by that much of course they can. The real question as a sports handicapper you SHOULD be asking yourself is WILL they and more importantly WHY.
In conclusion no matter what compelling reasons there may be to place a bet the price, line, odds call it what you want is always the final determining factor. If the price is not right nothing else matters.