Submitted by rsteel on
We will wrap up our discussion of chasing for now with this grapevine relating to the lines.
We discussed in a previous grapevine about being very selective in determining value we have also discussed not chasing your losses. The next category regarding discipline and chasing relates to the lines themselves.
Remember we deal with a fluid marketplace it is not static. Lines especially move quickly in college basketball and NHL and even more so with totals in general. To be successful long term you MUST know the sports you bet on at an extreme micro level. Pick out the game(s) on a daily basis from the menu where you feel the line maker has erred OR where the money has moved the line to a point you feel it is wrong creating value. There are no magic formulas or “power rankings” that are going to continually spit out winners for you. There are just too many intangibles associated with each event.
When you set a line on a game say -3.0 the book has it at -4.0 or more than no play. If the book has it at -2.0 or less play. However if the line moves against you before you bet and heads upward to that -4.0 or more PASS the value on that game is gone. DO NOT chase the line and still bet it more times than not you will get burned.
Conversely if that same game you set the line at -3.0 in the morning when you compare to the book it is -5.0 at that point it is a pass. In the early evening you find the line has come down to -2.0 assuming nothing substantial has happened to cause this movement (like a key injury) by all means pounce and bet it if you have value.
Timing the market as we have discussed previously is so critical to success. No one times the market 100% of the time. However as you gain experience and knowledge you should be on the right side of line moves more often than not creating closing line value (CLV) for yourself. If you are constantly on the wrong side of line moves you need to investigate why and improve on this in order to achieve long term success.
The same rules apply to money lines and dogs. Stay very disciplined in your approach. What has value? What may have had value? What has now become value?