Submitted by rsteel on
With the advances in technology and the development of my own processes live betting has become a bigger portion of my overall portfolio.
A two-part warning about this grapevine. One live betting is an advanced high level topic not for beginners. Two I cannot fully give it justice detail wise in a grapevine. There are many complexities and nuances to the live betting process that I could write a book. I will do my best to give you an overview with some specifics and if anyone has any questions you can contact me.
Two sports books that do an excellent job as far as menu and offerings that you can access and open accounts from my site are Pinnacle and Bookmaker.
One advantage of live betting obviously is that you have additional visual information in order to make a bet while the game is in progress. Does the pitcher have his stuff, did a team mail it in are they flat, did a questionable injured player participate.
In order to profit from line betting you need to understand how the books set and are constantly moving their live lines. The live line starts with the closing line of the game. It than moves based on the books algorithms of the current score and which teams win % changes based on how much time is left in the game and the score.
There are 2 types of live bets. Betting into a game that you also pre-bet or making an initial bet on that game. When I do my handicapping for the day and set my lines I have a set target list of games that I have determined have no initial line value BUT if certain events take place during the game and I get the line I want I will live bet it. Discipline and adhering to value remains and is even MORE important when live betting. DO NOT be impulsive and on that note ONLY live bet when the game is paused not while it is in progress.
Here are a few examples of live bets where I did not pre-bet:
- MLB It is mid game starters are out and I have a distinct adv in the bullpen. Note when betting live baseball always be aware of where each team is in their line up and to maximize line value bet when the other team is due to come up.
- NHL I like a med-big favorite in a game projected to be high scoring. I do not want to lay the big price pre-game. I watch the game hope the opposite team scores the first goal. Then I will jump on the team I wanted in the first place at a much better price. However if your team scores and goes up 1-0 2-0 etc you need to walk away again DISCIPLINE.
-NBA NCAAB NHL When you have teams that you think are going to hit a wall from fatigue wait until mid-game see what the score is and bet the other side in anticipation of the other team running out of gas.
- NBA NCAAB Basketball is such a game of big runs. It is not uncommon for teams to go on +/-20 point swings. So if you have a team that was favored by ie. 3 going into the game and mid game with no extenuating circumstances the live line is ie. 18 not uncommon take the plus 18 expecting the game to come back close to the original closing line.
Here are a few examples of games I did pre-bet:
- MLB I bet a baseball game that found value in the gap of starting pitchers. The game is tied late innings it has now become a coin flip I will bet the other side again depending on line for a % of my original bet to minimize my exposure. Another time I will lay off is if I am leading by 1 or 2 runs but do not have full confidence in my bullpen. I will lay off about 10% of my bet with excellent + money line in case the other team comes back and avoid a bad beat. Many times I can come close to losing little if the other teams comes back and winning most of my original bet if my team hangs on simply because of the big dog price of the trailing team.
- NBA NCAAB When I laid 3 and I am up say 15 at half I should be able to get a +14.0 or so on the other team. When I took +10 and the game is tied or I am slightly ahead at half time. You can go for some big middles on the other team potentially winning both bets. Those middling second bets should only be for max 20% of your original bets since you do not want to cut into your potential profits of your 1st bet.
- NHL If the game is tied heading into the 3rd again depending on line and game circumstances and it has become a coin flip I will lay off some of the bet not to overly expose myself to the goofy overtime variances.
The above points relating to NBA and NCAAB also apply to NFL and NCAAF but you must take into account obviously in football the swings and runs are less severe.
I know there are many details above. Live betting handicapping is a process just like pre-game betting. There is a learning curve and as usual the best way of learning by doing. However there are some aspects that do not change. Do not live bet without doing the pre-game handicapping. Only bet value; shop and be line sensitive. You will find bigger differences in lines between books in live betting than pre-game betting making line shopping and having enough outs critically important.
In general with live betting you are looking for reversals. In other words current game results way off to the closing line odds. The logic being the game results will trend back towards the closing line. To close this topic for now in my opinion in order to expand your betting business live betting should be developed along with your pre-game betting as part of your repertoire.