Submitted by rsteel on
Obviously filling out a bracket is a different beast than handicapping individual games of the tournament with point spreads.
Remember it is Ok to pass on games regardless how exciting the March madness games are. Remain vigilant in ONLY betting value. If you want action on a game for entertainment purposes, put some pizza money on it for fun that is OK if you must personally, I do not even do that. I will watch to scout the game as I do in all sports for future betting opportunities.
1) Forget about the conference tournaments underway. March madness is a different animal. There is no carryover of momentum for teams that performed well in those tournaments. In fact, some coaches could care less about those tournaments and focus on getting their teams ready for the big dance.
2) March madness games are held on neutral courts, or are they? Look for teams that are playing close to home where their fans can easily get to games. Also look for teams that have players from that general area in other words going home.
3) Free throw shooting is what wins and covers spreads. Look for teams that have a decided advantage in free throw shooting %.
4) In all sports defense wins championships. Look for underdogs who play great defense going up against a flashy offensive team. The offense is what attracts the public money it is the defense which puts money in your pocket.
Teams that were overvalued or undervalued heading into the tournament tend to stay that way. Do not get caught up in the hype about seeding’s. We are sports bettors our concern is the point spreads. The public bets March Madness usually after never having bet a college basketball game all season. The public will gravitate towards favorites, big name schools and overs.
Every year I am asked for advice regarding filling out your brackets and pools for the NCAAB tournament. Not only is March madness great and presents us with betting opportunities but it also means baseball is about to begin despite the doorknobs that run it.
Let me get the most obvious statement out of the way first. When filling out your brackets the MOST important thing is to pick the eventual champion. Start at the end of your bracket and work backwards. Most pools are weighted to the elite 8 and beyond. If you focused so much on the early games and not enough of your teams survived to the later rounds where the majority of points are earned you will have no chance.
We always here about these smaller schools from weak conferences in the early rounds that record some major upsets and get lots of publicity from it. The reality is 86% of the last 25 years champions have been a #1 or a #2 seed.
The bigger your pool the more chances you should take to differentiate yourself from the pack. The smaller the pool the more conservative you can be. Let your opponent’s make the mistakes.
Let the madness begin and may ALL the winners be yours.