Submitted by rsteel on
I thought I would provide you with a reference chart that you can print out keep handy as you are handicapping games.
On the left is when you are on a money line favorite and on the right is when you are on a money line underdog. The % is the amount of times you will need to win that game at that corresponding line in order to break even.
In other words ask yourself as you handicap the game trying to find value if this event were played 1000X with the same parameters would I win enough times to turn a profit at the given line. This is the basics of sports handicapping and finding value.
52.38% is one of the most difficult numbers for new sports bettors to absorb. That is the breakeven number at the traditional -1.10 point spread juice. Achieving a 55% win rate over a large sample size is the goal with anything above that win rate the ultimate.
If anyone has any questions do not hesitate to contact.
Juice Break-even win % Juice Break-even win %
-105 51.2 100 50.0
-110 52.4 105 48.8
-115 53.5 110 47.6
-120 54.5 115 46.5
-125 55.6 120 45.5
-130 56.5 125 44.4
-135 57.4 130 43.5
-140 58.3 135 42.6
-145 59.2 140 41.7
-150 60.0 145 40.8
-155 60.8 150 40.0
-160 61.5 155 39.2
-165 62.3 160 38.5
-170 63.0 165 37.7
-175 63.6 170 37.0
-180 64.3 175 36.4
-185 64.9 180 35.7
-190 65.5 185 35.1
-195 66.1 190 34.5
-200 66.7 195 33.9