Submitted by rsteel on
Continuing with NBA handicapping. The long NBA season is filled with injuries. Pay attention to the injuries that matter ignores the injuries that are irrelevant. The public generally over reacts when a high profile player goes down. However when key role players go down or there are cluster injuries at one particular position you generally do not see the necessary impact on the line.
Accurately valuing injury situations are critical for any handicapper. It has nothing to do with how good the player actually is but how replaceable that player is with the current roster.
Remember teams that are without their superstar at least for the first game have a tendency to step up while at the same time the opposing team maybe taking them lightly. However few teams can carry that forward for any length of time with role players having to play extended minutes is never a recipe for long term success.
We are highlighting the injury issue for NBA because that sport has just begun however realize the fundamentals apply to all sports. It is however more pronounced in basketball both college and pro because the nature of 5 key players playing the majority of minutes.
With any injury situation with any team in any sport you always have to ask yourself has the injury been accurately reflected in the line. Usually the markets will OVER react so look whenever possible to play the team WITH the injury. Lastly do not ignore the total on the game. Often the line has been adjusted accurately but the total has not.