Submitted by rsteel on
When someone tells you they are very good at something it probably takes you less than a minute of listening to figure out whether they are boasting bragging exaggerating call it what you want or even just plain lying.
It is no different with sports betting. If someone tells you over the long term they hit over 60% of their plays you can completely tune them out because the rest of what they have to say is irrelevant. Another dead giveaway is when they start talking about varying the size of their bets greatly from play to play or using a progressive betting system. Both money management techniques do accomplish something; getting you to bankruptcy quickly.
There are 3 general ways to handicap a sporting event:
1) Got a feeling got a hunch and bet a bunch.
2) Statistics/Modelling
3) Intangibles including motivational, situational and psychological issues. Market misconceptions
Most hobbyists use only the first method. The successful sports bettors will use a 50-50 combination of the second and third methods. It is not enough to just use analytics, advanced data modelling, crunch the stats no matter how good a mathematician you are. That just gets you to your own base line for that event. However everyone including the line maker has access to the same numbers. Any monkey can add a column of numbers, create a model etc. The real key is to take your base line and adjust it for all the category 3 factors. Now you can compare your line to the sports book line to see if you have value or not. It is how you interpret the information in category 3; attach numerical values to this information which will determine your long term success in this business.
As I always say you need numerous compelling reasons to bet on a game. A recreational player will latch on to 1 factor like revenge or some stat or the team played the night before and use this as his complete basis to bet a game. Sorry not enough to win consistently long term. In this business to be successful you have to be part statistician part psychiatrist. Most people have a very difficult time combining the math with the judgmental considerations. That is why there are so few successful sports bettors.
Not trying to complicate this more however the relative importance between stats and motivations actually changes as the season progresses sometimes week to week and game to game. For example one of the reasons I play such a higher percentage of games in the NBA playoffs than the regular season is twofold. One the market has a greater impact on the lines since there are fewer games and the games are higher profile. The market consistently overreacts to the last games result. However just as important you can throw out motivational factors fatigue factors when analyzing playoff games. Both teams have the same schedule and everyone is motivated at playoff time. You have no concerns about a team pulling a no show.
In conclusion you will never see successful sports bettor latch on to 1 factor and use that solely to make a bet. A successful sports bettor has no favorite teams. They will bet on or against any team that can make them money that night. It is critical when analyzing a game that you stay open to all factors that might affect the outcome.