Submitted by rsteel on
You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are never due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the crux of the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
Each decision each bet has to be evaluated on its’ own merits. It is irrelevant if you are on a 10 game winning or losing streak. Personally based on 20+ years of my own historical detailed record keeping I will carry a 55-45 win/loss ratio. Sometimes higher sometimes lower over smaller sample sizes. However over sample sizes of 1,000+ this is invariably the ratio. Anyone who claims to run a higher ratio over large sample sizes are simply lying. It is mathematically impossible given the nature of the business and what we do. The great news is at 55-45 you are in the tops of the industry and with proper money management you are generating an excellent R.O.I.
Conceptualize 1,000 marbles in a bag. The black marbles represent losses the white wins. In my bag I have 555 white and 445 black. I do not know what order they will come out once I start choosing them. I know when a white marble does come out there is a greater chance of a black now coming out. It is very likely that there will be streaks of 10+ whites and or 10+ black marbles at some point. So realize this accept this and do not get too high or too low.
Can I withstand those types of black marble streaks emotionally and monetarily? Yes! I am prepared and I expect this to occur it will not be a surprise. The law of probabilities says it will happen. Secondly I flat bet. Each bet I RISK 2% of my bankroll. When I am on a hot streak I do not raise my unit when I am on a cold streak I do not lower my unit.
My bankroll is made up of units which is my inventory. If I run out of units I am out of business.