Submitted by rsteel on
A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite, you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.
I am not saying dogs are not good bets they are, however playing them exclusively you are severely limiting yourself. Your best bets come from motivated favorites. I am often asked can team A beat team B by 15. My answer usually is of course they can that is why they are favored by so much they are a vastly superior team. However, the more accurate question, will they win by 15. That question can only be answered based on your handicapping of the intangibles such as revenge, scheduling, rivalries, home/away, injuries etc. etc.
Another myth is that you can be successful simply being a situational handicapper based on if a game fits a certain category like some of the intangibles I mentioned above. I totally disagree with that concept.
I believe as I always state in my grapevines any one situation on its’ own has absolutely no value. You need a number of compelling factors including the math to support making a bet. For example, just because this game has a revenge factor who says the team that lost before is extra motivated this time to win and cover. They could be complacent off a divisional game they may have injuries or a big look ahead game on deck or simply the other team is just way more talented etc. many potential reasons why revenge may not be a factor.
In conclusion no matter what compelling reasons there may be to place a bet the price, line, odds call it what you want is always the final determining factor. If the price is not right nothing else matters.