Submitted by rsteel on
Let us continue to talk about the most important and misunderstood concept in sports betting “VALUE” Anyone who states that value does not matter if you do not have the winner has no clue and should give up this endeavor right now.
If you have been at this 1 week or 10 years the toughest concept for bettors to get a handle on is that we DO NOT pick winners of individual sporting events. That is impossible no one can and if someone says they can either they have tomorrow’s newspaper or they are just lying.
What we do is find value based on our handicapping. So what is value? The simple answer it is the difference between the line you set for the game vs. the line posted at the sports book. The more in depth answer includes will you make money on this event if it is played 100,000 times with the same parameters based on the odds.
I will bet either side of a game depending on the odds. No team will win a game 100% of the time. Even the worst baseball team wins at least 60 games a year.
Take for example the common line of -1.10. If you like team A and concluded you have value that means you think team A will win this event at least 53 out of 100 times in order to make money long term. Conversely on another event you like team B at +1.40. Your handicapping has determined you have value because team B will win this event at least 36 out of every 100 times in order to make money. Regardless if you win this individual game today or not with solid handicapping you made the right bet and long term you WILL make money as long as the same parameters arise again and you bet it each time.
You can also refer back to the Grapevine of 07/26/20 where I provided you a chart break even win %’s at each level of juice.