Archived Picks

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees

New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals: No the Nyy are no where near what they will be with all the injuries. However this has fully been factored in the line today. Bailey is the 2nd worst pitcher in the majors but after 3 starts his numbers look decent. Those starts were at home in the cold masking what he really is BAD! German is probably best suited for middle relief but his stuff is excellent. Control has been an issue early on but last year it was not the case so I assume it is just some mechanics and small sample size.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets over Utah Jazz Game 2: This game is being priced like game 1 with the markets expecting a bounce back from Ut I am not. Houst has more depth and others that can score if necessary besides Harden. Ut is more dependent on Mitchell. Look for Ut to try and double team even triple team Harden getting the ball out of his hands forcing others to beat the. Thing is Houst has others that will beat them. Gordon, Paul and Capela can score. Off the bench House, Rivers Faried, and Green off the bench is quality depth. Last year like this year Houst won game 1 going away.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw is the wild card in this one but at this price it is well worth the risk. Kershaw makes his season debut after 1 double A rehab start. He comes back from a left shoulder injury. With a smooth trip I project Kershaw to go 5-6 inngs turning it over to a very mediocre Lad bullpen. Castillo starts for Cinci and he has been superb after 3 starts. His numbers under the hood support his success so far. We will give Cinci a small adv in starting pitching and rate the bullpens and offenses equal.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers: Trout may or may not be back for this one but regardless the value is with Laa. It is a toss up as to who is the worst pitcher in MLB. That competition wold be Miller vs Bailey in my opinion. Cahill is no stud be his sinker is helpful in Tex he keeps the ball in the park. Laa get a second quick look at Miller. April 7th they faced him and they like what they saw at home. Mill only lasted 2 inngs. Laa also have a med adv in the bullpen and we will call the offenses equal. I have this game at 1.49 giving us excellent value.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Columbus Blue Jackets over Tampa Bay Lightning Best of 7 series adj price: NO this series is far from over. However Clb comes home up 2-0. Remember last year they were in the same position against Wash and lost. If nothing else that should be a learning experience. Clb has out scored Tb 9-1 since the first period of game 1. Kucherov will be suspended for game 3 Hedman will likely play but is banged up.I have the adj series price at 2.55 giving us excellent value.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: Will not hesitate to come back on TB today despite increased price from yesterday. Snell had a rough 1st start against a very good Houst team . Since than 2 dominating starts against Col and Chw. 24K 1BB. Yes 2 weak hitting teams but so is Tor. Buchholz gets his 1st start of the year after 1 rehab game. Even on a smooth trip he should not go more than 5 turning it over to a weak bullpen. We get a med adv across the board starting pitching, offense and bullpen. I have this game at 2.02 giving us excellent value.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: We get a med adv on offense. We get a med adv in the bullpen. Part of the reason this line is low is Thornton a 5th round draft choice has had 2 decent starts. Det at home Clev on the road in very cold conditions. He may have success 1 time through the order for Tb has never faced him. However my eye test says he is not ready yet. HE would not even be in the rotation if not for injuries. With a smooth trip he goes 5 and than Tor has some trouble in the bullpen after games in Bost. Stanek will be the opener for Tb and probably go 2 inngs.

Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames over Colorado Avalanche game 1 Including OT: Cal will go as far as their goaltending keeps up. However for this series I do not see it being a big factor. In addition Smith actually played well heading down the stretch. Col in my opinion is the worst team in the playoffs. I suspect they are happy to be here there season already a big success. Of course they have the 1 very good big line however neutralize that and you will have success against them. Cal has depth balanced scoring and a legit chance to go very deep. Col was 6-23 vs. top 10 teams this year.

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals

Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals: Kc has lost 7 in a row. Beckham is questionable for Sea. We will rate the starting pitching equal. Similar pitchers do not strike out many go 6 inngs give up some hits but keep their teams in the game. We will give a small adv in the bullpen to Sea. It is not that their bullpen is so good but Kc is horrible. The real value for this one is on offense where we get a large adv. Sea has hit 32HR in 12 games. They are in excellent form right now. I have this game at 1.21 giving us excellent value.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia Cavaliers #812 over Texas Tech Red Raiders: First to state the obvious this will be a nails on the chalk board slow pace defensive battle. Two team’s very similar styles rely on their defense. For Virg the redemption is not over after last years embarrassing loss they have one final step. Tex Tech deserves to be here no doubt but it was not projected they would. I expect like Virg they will need 1 year to finish the job. They are definitely not a 1 hit wonder with an excellent coach.