Archived Picks

Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans

Oregon Ducks #643 over USC Trojans: On 02/22 Usc beat Org 72-58 at home as a 3.5 favorite. That was than this is now. That was the last regular season loss for Org. In that game Org got down 17-0 and simply could not recover. Both teams are off dominating wins. USC took care of Kansas while Org beat Iowa. 3 factors in this match up providing us with value. Yes USC will probably win the battle of the boards they do have a height length adv. However Org is a very good group team rebounding wise as well. The advs for Org their backcourt is much stronger.

Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma Sooners #766 over Missouri Tigers: Both these teams peaked around mid-season and have been struggling ever since. The re-set will be good for both teams. The key matchup is Smith for Mizz very good especially on the defensive side vs. Reaves for Okl who does everything for that team. 3 keys to establish value with Okl with at this line virtually win outright and you cash. Okl takes better care of the ball Mizz is sloppy and turnover prone. Mizz is consistently giving up 70+ points struggling to get stops.

Los Angeles Kings vs Arizona Coyotes

Arizona Coyotes over Los Angeles Kings: Ariz takes a big step down in class here. Ariz just finished playing STl 7 straight games and went 4-2-1. Lak have won 2 in a row. Sj 6-2 a bad team with weak goaltending and Minn who was off a w week Covid layoff. So we get to sell Lak high. We get a big adv in net with Quick vs. Kuemper. Yes Ariz struggles to score goals but that is more than offset against a Lak team on the road ranked 25th defensively. Lak have played the 17th ranked SOS Ariz 7th. I made this game 1.60 giving us excellent value.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins over Philadelphia Flyers: Phil has some substantial injuries that have not been accurately reflected in the line. Bost has a med adv in net.   Phil has played Pitts and Buff in their 4 games and have been outshot in all 4. Bost has played 3 games on the road against Nj and Nyi 2 very defensive teams. It seems as if the BOst offense is struggling however against an injury riddled weak Phil defense chances are tonight they get back on track. I made this game 1.45 giving us excellent value.

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens: We won with Balt last week so this is not a complete fade on them. If not for the miracle hail mary by Ariz Buff would be on an 11 game s/u win streak. Buff is 8-1 at home only loss was to Kc. Yes Balt will be able to move the ball on the ground. Yes very likely Jackson is going to break off 2-3 big runs. However will it be enough. Buff has a huge adv in the passing game. If Balt falls behind this is not a team built to do so. Balt has played the 29th ranked strength of schedule Buff 11th.

Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors over Indiana Pacers: Ind is in a tough spot. They are already short handed. They are off a tough game vs. Sac where they lost and their key players played heavy minutes. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Curry is off one of his worst shooting games all time. I am expecting a bounce back. Gs is no longer the team that plays at a fast pace. In fact Ind attempts to play faster. With the return of Green Gs is playing much better and they have a strong bench.

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: There is no denying how good the Tenn offense is. However Balt historically has done a good job containing Henry. Conversely Tenn defense has stopped no one all year. The Balt offense has been in positive regression since a very slow start to the year. Balt should be able to put pressure on Tannehill. I expect a high scoring game and I expect the Balt defense to get some key stops that the Tenn defense simply is not capable of. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: The big narrative for this game is will Goff start at Qb for Lar. Who cares Goff is not very good anyway Wolford brings a run dimension and not that much of a downgrade. This area is not where the value lies. Mcvay vs Carroll big adv Lar. The Sea offense has regressed badly since they went back to a run 1st focus. Sea lacks a pass rush which helps if Goff starts. He can be effective given time and not forced to move around. Despite all this yes Sea has an overall adv on offense.

Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns over Toronto Raptors: The market is expecting for Tor to return to form. Perhaps they will perhaps they will not. The loss of Gasol and more so Ibaka has really hurt. Tor is ranked 30th in off FG%. Regular readers know I an high on Phx. Phx improvement is coming from the defensive side of the ball when they are ranked 1st. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets over Dallas Mavericks: Former assistant coach of Dall Silas will get to face his former team as head coach of Houst tonight. Dall will plat their 4th game in 6 nights and first back to back of the year. I am handicapping this as if Doncic will play although he is questionable with a quad. He did not play last night. I made this game 4.0 giving us excellent value.