Archived Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens: We won with Balt last week so this is not a complete fade on them. If not for the miracle hail mary by Ariz Buff would be on an 11 game s/u win streak. Buff is 8-1 at home only loss was to Kc. Yes Balt will be able to move the ball on the ground. Yes very likely Jackson is going to break off 2-3 big runs. However will it be enough. Buff has a huge adv in the passing game. If Balt falls behind this is not a team built to do so. Balt has played the 29th ranked strength of schedule Buff 11th.

Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors over Indiana Pacers: Ind is in a tough spot. They are already short handed. They are off a tough game vs. Sac where they lost and their key players played heavy minutes. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Curry is off one of his worst shooting games all time. I am expecting a bounce back. Gs is no longer the team that plays at a fast pace. In fact Ind attempts to play faster. With the return of Green Gs is playing much better and they have a strong bench.

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: There is no denying how good the Tenn offense is. However Balt historically has done a good job containing Henry. Conversely Tenn defense has stopped no one all year. The Balt offense has been in positive regression since a very slow start to the year. Balt should be able to put pressure on Tannehill. I expect a high scoring game and I expect the Balt defense to get some key stops that the Tenn defense simply is not capable of. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: The big narrative for this game is will Goff start at Qb for Lar. Who cares Goff is not very good anyway Wolford brings a run dimension and not that much of a downgrade. This area is not where the value lies. Mcvay vs Carroll big adv Lar. The Sea offense has regressed badly since they went back to a run 1st focus. Sea lacks a pass rush which helps if Goff starts. He can be effective given time and not forced to move around. Despite all this yes Sea has an overall adv on offense.

Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns over Toronto Raptors: The market is expecting for Tor to return to form. Perhaps they will perhaps they will not. The loss of Gasol and more so Ibaka has really hurt. Tor is ranked 30th in off FG%. Regular readers know I an high on Phx. Phx improvement is coming from the defensive side of the ball when they are ranked 1st. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets over Dallas Mavericks: Former assistant coach of Dall Silas will get to face his former team as head coach of Houst tonight. Dall will plat their 4th game in 6 nights and first back to back of the year. I am handicapping this as if Doncic will play although he is questionable with a quad. He did not play last night. I made this game 4.0 giving us excellent value.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: Goff is so inconsistent but at this price and the lack of Sea pass rush we should get the good Goff. We get a buy low opportunity with Lar in a bounce back situation off the embarrassing loss to Nyj. Sea is still being priced like when they were rolling earlier in the year. This team especially the offense has regressed badly since focusing more on the run. I rate the offenses equal but the Lar have a substantial adv on defense. Sea is ranked 26th overall defensively while Lar are ranked 1st.

San Francisco 49er's vs Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49er’s: This time of year throw the narratives of teams NEED to win and that team will NOT try have given up. #1 just because a team needs to win does not mean they will or more importantly cover. Secondly they are all professionals getting paid lots of money playing for next years contracts. They are all trying. Having said all this a team out of it that falls behind in a game have trouble finding the energy to fight back. Also individual players prep work depending on the players suffers. Which brings us to this game.

Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets over Los Angeles Clippers: Lac were busy beating the Lal opening night raising their stock once again. A deeper dive Lac at 1 point blew a 22 point lead. Excuse the Lal for being distracted as they got their rings. Den at home in OT really blew a game losing by 2 to Sac. Murray had an off night. Adding to the narrative is Lac wanting revenge for their playoff series loss in the bubble to Den. Lac may win and cover tonight but it will not be a result of revenge. Den with the altitude is always a tough place to play.

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns over Dallas Mavericks: We rode the Phx train long and hard through the bubble and it was very profitable. We will jump back on them for game 1. Dall will be without Porzingis but obviously Doncic is very special MVP in waiting. However he has admittedly not arrived in the best of shape. I will give the edge on the bench to Dall with the Phx injuries. However Dall remains a weak defensive team. Phx made 2 very good acquisitions.  Veteran leadership and toughness exactly what they needed to go along with their young talent. Specifically Paul and Crowder.