Archived Picks



Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes

Colorado Buffaloes #377 over Utah Utes: No Ut has motivation to dominate this game. Win and Pac 12 championship and outside shot at college football playoff. Ut is obviously playing very well this is not a fade on them but rather inflated points given the situation. The total on this game is 49.0 the spread is huge. Very little margin for error. 10-14 points from Col should get us our ticket to cash. Both teams have played tough SOS. Col although obviously not on the same level as Ut is also playing good football down the stretch especially on the defensive side.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska Cornhuskers #328 over Iowa Hawkeyes: We successfully played on Neb last week as a big road fav at Maryland and won in blow out fashion. We only mention this because now they return home as a dog against Iowa. Iowa is a very avg offense granted Neb defense not that good but the points offered more than offset this issue. We also mentioned in the bet last week how Neb with over rated coach Frost is beginning to show some life. Now they have a chance to get to a bowl with a win. Iowa is locked in this is a game to stay healthy. We get home edge motivational edge and points.

Seton Hall Pirates vs Oregon Ducks

Oregon Ducks #724 over Seton Hall Pirates: This game will be played at neutral site at Atlantis. It is still very early but Org has played the 83rd ranked SOS S.Hall is 239th. Org likes to play slow and will try and turn this into a half court game. They have a balanced offense with strong guard play while S. Hall is very dependent on Powell. I have this game at 2.5 giving us excellent value.

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions: Short week travel for Chic but this is a familiar opponent so prep time should be fine. It is always risky to lay points especially on the road with Trubisky and Chic. However Chic still has a chance to make the playoffs. The Det defense not good to begin with has cluster injures not fully incorporated in this line. Now QB Driskel has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury. The 3rd stringer Blough was undrafted out of Purdue if they need to go there. Driskel is not good to begin with and the Chic defense is still very formidable.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos over Buffalo Bills: Valiant effort by Den on the road vs. a very good Minn team. Allen is looking more and more comfortable with the offense in Den especially good chemistry with Sutton. Den has played the 4th ranked strength of schedule Buff comes in at 32nd. In fact Buff 7 wins have come against teams a combined 15-55. Both teams try and establish the run and have trouble throwing. Look for a fast moving low scoring grind it out type of game. Buff has Dall on tap Thurs. I priced this game at 3.0 giving us excellent value. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Maryland Terrapins

Nebraska Cornhuskers #115 over Maryland Terrapins: Both teams major disappointments this year. Neb is still showing some fight Mary has packed it in. Neb is simply the much better team. Mary tries to run the ball has no pass offense and the defense is Swiss cheese. Mary will likely rotate at QB and for the most part are auditioning for next year. I have this game at 8.5 giving us excellent value.

Temple Owls vs Cincinnati Bearcats

Temple Owls #135 over Cincinnati Bearcats: Cinci at 9-1 s/u are obviously winning but not by margins like this type of line. Cinci defense is very good and they win this one they get the division title. All of the above has them over valued. QB Ridder is banged up. Tem has a very good pass rush. They also have a trio of strong RB’s which should allow them to control the clock. Russo a SR will not be intimidated with this road venue. I expect a low scoring game which Cinci will likely win but Tem should be able to stay well within the number and if necessary keeping the back door wide open.

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers: Give SF full marks. However they have played the 29th ranked strength of schedule. The only win for SF against a 500+ team was the Rams who were struggling at the time. Gb has played the 10th ranked strength of schedule. Gb is off a bye and a chance for the defense to gwt heathier as they have underperformed so far this year. Gb is 3-0 vs. top 10 teams while Sf is 1-1. I am expecting Gb to be able to put some heat on Garoppolo and force him into a few bad throws as he has 10 picks on the year.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts: Houst was embarrassed last week at Balt so likely a good thing they are able to get right back on the field on a short week. Add to this Indi beat Houst at home 10/20 30-23 and we can see why there is value in the line. Indi travels on a short week with RB Mack out and WR Hilton a game time decision. Indi has played the 24th strength of schedule HOust comes in at #5. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.   

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons: Atl with a surprising win on the road last week in New Orleans. This is still a very bad team that caught NO flat. Now Atl will be without TE Hooper and RB Freeman. So much of Atl stats have been generated I garbage time as most games this year they have fallen behind big early on. Car battled Gb right until the end on the road last week. If Car has aspirations of getting into the playoffs they cannot take this visitor lightly. Look for Car to chew up yards on the ground and short passes to McCaffery.

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