Archived Picks

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros over Detroit Tigers: Not often you will find me spotting this type of juice especially on the road. However value is value. I have this game at 2.28 giving us excellent value. Miley is solid and consistent. Usually will give you 6 very good inngs. That will turn it over to an excellent Houst bullpen where we have a med adv. Houst is 8-3 vs. LH so far while Det is 3-3. We get a large adv in starting pitching and another med adv in offense. Carpenter is starting for Det and we faded him successfully his first time out for an easy winner.

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins over Los Angeles Angels: We will rate the offenses and bullpens equal for this one. However starting pitching we have a med adv. Berrios is a true ace but not being priced as one. Skaggs is a solid middle of the rotation guy. Does not walk many or stike out many but gives up far too many hits with his 274 BAA. Minn is 7-1 when Berrios starts. Berrios has a 209 BAA with a 0.92 WHIP. Minn is 12-5 in their last 17 and have the best record in baseball to date. The gap between these starting pitchers is greater than the posted line.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves over Arizona Diamondbacks: We will again call the offenses equal and take a small disadv with the bullpens heading into this one. Offsetting this is a med adv in starting pitching. I also fully expect Ariaz to need much more inngs out of their bullpen than Atl for this game. Godley is probably better suited for middle relief. His control is not good with 28K vs 21 BB. Godley has already made 2 relief appearances this week. Fried had to leave early last game after getting hit on the hand. This is an up and coming young left hander. Excellent ratio of 34k only 8 BB.

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta Braves: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. Conservatively we will have a med adv in starting pitching. Teheran surface stats are good. However his last 3 starts were against Cinci Sd and Mia not exactly offensive juggernauts. Teheran stuff is not the question it is always about control and giving up the long ball. He is a negative regression candidate. Greinke is being Greinke. High strikeouts low walks and a low BAA of 220. If it were not for a bad opening day start against the Lad where he gave up 4 HR is numbers would be outstanding.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets over Golden State Warriors Adj Series price: Durant is definitely out tonight likely the rest of the series. Can Gs still win the series of course they can. However this bet is about Houst winning tonight at home. With a line of 7.5 and a money line of 3.13 there is no value. The value is with Houst to win the series. If Houst wins tonight we will have many options available heading into game 7 to take Gs before the game starts or in game at + money if Houst gets off to a lead.  

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers

Los Angeles Angels over Detroit Tigers: Bard will open for Laa  1-2 inngs and than bring in Pena. Carpenter will pitch for Det and be brought up for a spot start with Ross having a tight back. We will rate the offenses equal. We will have a med adv in SP and a small adv in the bullpen. I have this game at 1.37 giving us excellent value.

Colorado Avalanche vs San Jose Sharks

San Jose Sharks over Colorado Avalanche game 7 incl OT: Give Col all the credit in the world for getting where they are. However 2 issues still remain. They have a huge H/A dichotomy. Secondly very dependent on the 1 big line lacking scoring balance and depth. Of course anything can happen in 1 game. However this line is the second lowest at home for Sj since game 1. Game 1 is where the markets anticipated Sj being flat from the Veg miracle game 7 comeback. However that did not catch up to Sj until game 2. The exp from the Veg game 7 should help not wanting to fall behind again.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins: We will call the offenses equal for this one. We will get a small adv in the bullpen and fully expect Minn to need their bullpen for more outs than Nyy today. Pineda forst few starts to begin the year coming back from surgery were good. However reality has now arrived. His BAA 316 and has given up 6 HR in only 29 inngs. This is the wrong venue to correct this issue. German is pitching very well. His under the hood numbers are even better than his surface stats. A BAA of 157 and a WHIP of 0.85. Conservatively we have a med adv in starting pitching.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels: This game will be played at a neutral field in Mexico. Laa will be the home team. We have small adv across the board starting pitching, bullpen, and offense. Miley is in for a small regression but he is keeping the ball down not walking batters and with a strong Houst infield he has been effective. Cahill a sinker baller on the other hand is a mess. 9HR given up so far in only 30.3 inngs of work. When Cahill sinker is not sinking he is very hittable. With the elevation for this game this is not a spot for Cahill to get right sided.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers over Toronto Blue Jays: We have a med disadvantage in the bullpen however the gap in starting pitching more than makes up for it still providing us with value. Minor is pitching at an elite level and although he may be in line for some minor regression his under the hood numbers actually have him with an XERA of 2.42. Minor BAA is 179 with an excellent ratio of 39K vs. 12BB. Thornton has been adequate however I do not expect him to go more than 5 inngs and he is giving up a hit per inng. I also give Tex a small adv on offense.