Archived Picks



Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Adj series price

Submitted by rsteel on

Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves Adj series price: The line for game 4 is prohibitive rightfully so but obviously I would expect Lad to win tonight making the series 2-2 and a best of 5. Wilson has not pitched since 09/27 and is not exactly a prospect. It will essentially be a bullpen day and could very well be as well in game 5 for Atl. Neither team after tonight is in good shape pitching wise but Lad have more depth and quality to be in a position to win this series. Regardless as long as Lad win game 4 we will be in a favorable leverage situation if we are forced to lay off.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Game 1

Submitted by rsteel on

Houston Astros over Tampa Bay Rays Game 1: Tb has become the market darlings. We will continue to give them a small adv in the bullpen however that for game 1 is minimized given the usage that Tb had for game 5 vs. Nyy. In addition I expect Tb to need more inngs from their bullpen tonight than Houst. I will rate the offenses worst case equal. Sp I give a small adv to Houst. Houst is much more familiar with Snell whilw Tb has had a grand total of 2AB vs. Valdez. Snell has the name and reputation his ERA 3.24 going under the hood he pitched to an XERA of 3.71.

Florida Gators vs Texas A/M Aggies

Submitted by rsteel on

Florida Gators #333 over Texas A/M Aggies: It is early but Qb Trask has established himself as a Heisman candidate. Supported by the very dangerous Pitts these 2 have been lethal. The Flor defense has been sporadic I do expect a positive regression as well this unit has an excellent pass rush. Conversely Tex A/M has not been able to put any pressure on the opposing Qb. Qb Mond has played well but his 2 biggest weapons opted out before the season started. I priced this game at 6.5 giving us excellent value. 

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns

Submitted by rsteel on

Cleveland Browns over Indianapolis Colts: Wrong team is favored here especially on the road. LB Leonard is doubtful and that is a big loss for Indi. This will be the best offense Indi has seen yet this year given the fact they have faced Jax, Minn, Nyj, and Chic. Indi SOS is ranked 31st. Part of the reason for this line is Indi is ranked #1 in overall defense but has stated this is misleading. Clev has a very good offensive line and TE Njoku is expected back which will help. RB Chubb continues to be sidelined but Clev has very good quality depth at RB.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Best of 5 series

Submitted by rsteel on

Houston Astros over Oakland Athletics Best of 5 series: The market loves to hate on Houst and rightfully so. We do not care we are in the business of value. We will give a small adv in the bullpen to Oak. We will give a small adv to Houst on offense especially with Chapman out. We will rate a small adv to Sp to Houst after game 1. Not sure what we get from McCullers in game 1 since he has been off since Sept 26th. However even with that Bassitt is no better. Projected after this could be Manaea Luzardo followed by Fiers Montas combo.

New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays best of 5 series

Submitted by rsteel on

New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays Best of 5 series: Tb is the trendy bet it is their year says the market. I beg to differ. The Nyy had so many injuries through the shortened season. They are healthier than at anytime. We will give the small adv in the bullpen to Tb. We will rate the offenses equal. Starting pitching projection Cole, Tanaka, Happ, vs Snell Glasnow and Morton. I will give a small adv to Nyy. Lastly if this does go 5 and Nyy go back to Cole on 3 days rest against whatever Tb throws out there I like Nyy value. I priced this series at 1.40 giving us excellent value.

Charlotte 49er's vs Florida Atlantic Owls

Submitted by rsteel on

Charlotte 49ers-Florida Atlantic Owls #149 Over: The weather is Boca Raton is supposed to be hot humid rain with light wind. Flor Atl will be playing their first game. I expect both defenses to wear down as the game progresses. Flor Atl has a new coach new def co-ord and have turned over the majority of the defense. Look for growing pains to say the least. Flor Atl does have a strong run game which will open up some opportunities through the air against a weak Charl secondary. I expect this game to be relatively close which will help our cause as Charl should play fast with Reynolds at Qb.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49er's

Submitted by rsteel on

San Francisco 49er’s over Philadelphia Eagles: Where to start with this one. Both teams have played weak competition. Both teams have substantial injuries. However SF is taking care of business Phil is not. SF lost opening day to Ariz at home we were on Ariz but SF was right there for a possible win and cover. Phil just played an extra quarter tying Cinci at home and now must travel to the west coast. Given the current roster this team is no better than the jets and giants. Rb Sanders is ? cluster injuries at WR the offensive line has given up 11 sacks.

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics

Submitted by rsteel on

Chicago White Sox over Oakland Athletics: What is partially fueling this line is the fact Chic is 14-0 when a LH starts. It is relevant but not the main interest for our play. Oak has a small adv in the bullpen they are very good arguably right there with TB in that regard. We get a med adv on offense providing most of the value. LF Jimenez is expected back for Chic while 3B Chapman out for Oak. We also get a small adv in SP. Giolito under the hood numbers are even better than surface stats. An ERA of 3.48 with an XERA comes in at 2.38.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Submitted by rsteel on

Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens: This is not a fade on Balt. There is nothing negative to say about them. This is a rare Monday nighter regular season with both teams will be focused and up for the game. It is not often you are able to take back points with Mahomes at QB. The hype is Balt wants to prove they belong national audience and they are on the same level as Kc. Guess what they are but given the circumstances minimal home field adv I priced this game at 1.5 giving us excellent value.

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