Archived Picks



Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates: Given current form we will rate the offenses and bullpens equal. The value for this game is with the starting pitching where we have a med adv. Anderson is not spectacular by any stretch but he is consistent. Will give you 5-6 inngs keeps the ball in the park and is holding opponents to a 229 BAA. Brault last pitched on July 5th has been out with a left shoulder strain. Prior he had an ugly ratio 53K vs. 32BB. His ERA is 4.15 however when you go under the hood his numbers more project out to an XERA of 4.52.

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals: As always when we bet SF scoring runs will be the concern. We will take a small disadv into this one but given the venue that should help. Offsetting this as well we will have a med adv in the bullpen. I also expect Samardzija to go deeper in this game than Fedde. Worst case we have a small adv in starting pitching. Fedde is off his worst start as a pro vs. Atl he went 3.6 inngs giving up 9ER. Confidence could be an issue for this inexperienced guy not used to the pressures of baseball stretch drives.

New York Jets vs New York Giants

New York Giants over New York Jets: This will game will be played in the Meadowlands so technically they are both playing at home but NYG will be designated the home team. Both head coaches Gase and Shurmur are trying to establish winning cultures so no adv here. The Nyj already have some substantial injuries. WR cluster injuries, RB Montgomery along with RB Bell who is trying to work his way back. In addition the offensive line so they are not going to risk injury here to Darnold.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets over Pittsburgh Pirates: We will take a small disadv into this one on the bullpens although the Mets bullpen has stabilized given it could not get much worse. I will rate the offenses equal. NYm are 8-2 last 10 Pits 2-8 so we have hot vs. cold. Starting pitching where the value for this one is we have a med adv. Stroman loves the attention and spotlight and for the most part he performs well in big games. HE is having an excellent year and will be anxious to show his new team what he can do.

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos over Atlanta Falcons: Neutral site Canton Ohio for the annual hall of fame game. Atl defense was horrible last year mainly due to injuries. I do not think their keys guys will lay much if at all on that side of the ball. Ryan and Schaub are veterans who will likely see little to no snaps tonight. That leaves Benket who is completely raw for the majority of work. Conversely Den has a new head coach Fangio and new off-coord Scangarello. Flacco will not see any action.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: Given that the Tb offense is not in good form right now I will rate the offenses equal. Give a small adv in the bullpen to Tb although after Castillo pitches an inng as the opener look for Yarbrough to come in as the bulk guy tonight. I expect Yarbrough to go a solid 5-6 so Tor will also need to use their bullpen much more tonight. Give Tb a med adv in pitching with Yarbrough vs. Waguespack. Wag was a 37th round pick in 2012. Tor has no one else. Tb had a 4 inng look at this guy back on May 27th.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies over Detroit Tigers: Phil under any standard is having a disappointing season. However they are right there in a battle for a playoff spot. Det is just a mess and their prime trade deadline chip will go tonight Boyd. This is likely his last start for Det. Boyd started out great he has been able to maintain his big K rate but results have regressed. Conversely Nola really struggled to begin the year but he has returned to his ace form. I have this game at 1.53 giving us excellent value.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over New York Mets: Nym lost a 16 inng game and than a 10 inng game last night. What a lost season for them. The Giants are streaking. They have now reached the 500 mark 14-2 in their last 16 as they try to convince mgmt. to buy instead of sell. We will rate the offenses equal for this one. In the bullpen we have a med adv. Starting pitching also a med adv. Samardzjia is in the best form he has been in for awhile. Locket will get a spot start based on injury to Wheeler not because of merit. His AAA numbers are mediocre his 2 starts in June with NYM were awful.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks over Milwaukee Brewers: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. We will have a small adv in the bullpen. Starting pitching will give us a med adv. Gonzalez gets his 1st start since May 27th having suffered arm fatigue. Gonzalez is a junk ball lefty who rarely strikes anyone out. Being a feel pitcher this is a very difficult spot for him. Greinke is off a tough start vs. Stl after coming out of the all star break. I expect a bounce back tonight. I have this game at 1.42 giving us excellent value.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Saint Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates over Saint Louis Cardinals: Pitts did not have a good weekend in Chic and that has led to additional value for this game. We will take a small disadv in the bullpen for this one. We will however has a small adv on offense. Pitts had a rough weekend in Chic but STl has hit 233 in their last 10 vs. Rh pitching. Starting pitching I will rank even Musgrove and Mikolas are mirror images of each other. Neither strikes out many both do not pitch deep into games. MIkolas has been more susceptible to the HR. I have this game at 1.12 giving us excellent value. 

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