Archived Picks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals: We will give a med adv in the bullpen to Wash. Phil is really bad however they have recently added Workman, Hembree, and Parker which should help somewhat. I do expect Nola to pitch deep into this game which should minimize this issue. We will rate the offenses equal. The main value for this game is starters. Nola is off perhaps his worst start of his career vs. Atl. I expect a bounce back. Nola ERA is 3.10 but going under the hood his XERA 2.56. Corbin is solid this bet is not a fade against him but the gap vs.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox: Hart was drafted in 2016 19th round has trouble with command and is best suited for a middle relief role down the road. Anderson got a late start is just a steady 4th or 5th rotation guy on a good staff. He is still trying to get stretched out. However Tor will have at least a small adv in SP. Relief Tor will have a med adv where this game is likely to be won. I do not expect either starter to go deep. Offensively Tor will have a small adv.

Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Best of 7 series

Tampa Bay lightning over Boston Bruins Best of 7 series: There is very little that separates these 2 teams. All indications this is going to be a long series. The deciding factor as usual will be in net. Vasilevskiy vs. Halak. Do not get me wrong Halak is a very good back up at this stage of his career but that is what he is a back up. In addition what happens when these teams go back to back Tues and Wed. Halak has not done so in ages. Bost really has no one else to turn to. For this reason the value is with Tb. I have this series at 1.22 giving us excellent value.

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche over Dallas Stars: Dall took down Cal in 6 games. I will go as far they struggled to do so against a team down Tchauk and with weak goaltending. Now they take a big big step up with little prep time to face Col. Col did what they were supposed to do beat Ariz in 5. The only reason they lost 1 game is that Keumper stole one. This is a focused deep team. Dall may have a slight adv on defense however after that all the arrows point to Col. I have this game at 1.81 giving us excellent value.

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs: Not a believer in either of these 2 starters. Both are pitching over their head. Both soft tossing lefties depend on fooling hitters than strikeouts. This is however a fade on Lester who allows morehard contact. White Sox have a very right handed hitting line up which does very well against LH starting pitchers.  We will call the SP equal. Since the return from injury of Anderson to the lead off spot the White Sox offense especially against LH has taken off. We will get a small adv on offense. Bullpen we get a med adv.

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers

Dallas Mavericks over Los Angeles Clippers: Dall got off to slow start falling behind 18-2. Doncic despite scoring 42 can play better he had 11 turnovers. Porzingis was ejected after playing just under 20 minutes. Harrell and Shamet looked rusty after missing time. Despite how the game played out Dall was right there in a position to win s/u down the stretch. Can Lac play better in game 2 sure they can but the upside regression more points to Dall. It would not surprise if Dall wins this game outright. I have this game at 4.5 giving us excellent value.

Portland Trailblazers vs Los Angeles Lakers

Portland Trailblazers over Los Angeles Lakers: Anytime you bet on the Lakers you will pay a premium. That does not mean they will not cover but it does mean they rarely have value. The Laker name Davis and Lebron attract the money in the marketplace. This series and especially game 1 maybe much closer than expected. Port has been in playoff mode since they entered the bubble. Lal have been on cruise control with players in and out of the line up. First off the Port defense is horrible. So how do they win? Push the pace try and outscore Lal since they are not going to stop them.

Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders

New York Islanders over Washington Capitals: Break down any category over the first 3 games adv points to Nyi. 5 X 5 play Nyi have out shot Wash 75-53.  Most importantly med adv in net with Varlamov over Holtby. There will be people that will simply bet against a sweep which is the case tonight. No Wash I do not expect to just roll over and go home. Close out games are the most difficult to win. However I have priced this game at 1.24 giving us excellent value.

Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes

Colorado Avalanche over Arizona Coyotes: Last night we lost with Veg over Chic as they dominated and played the game for the most part in the Chic zone. Crawford had the game of his life. I only mention this because this series as well has been a complete mis-match other than Kuemper. Although Col leads 2-1 they have outplayed and out shot Ariz by a wide margin. Shots over the 3 games 119-67. Any goalie can only hold it down for so long. I have this game at 2.02 giving us excellent value.

Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders

New York Islanders over Washington Capitals: The market keeps giving us plus money on Nyi we will keep betting it. Must win is a useless angle. That does not mean Wash will not win today but that will not be the reason. The public likes to bet on teams who need to win. Nyi have dominated the first 2 games 5 on 5. Now for game 3 they will get the last change. Adv Trotz. Nyi have adv in goaltending, depth defense and balance of scoring not to mention coaching. This may be the toughest test yet for Nyi but I again have this game at pick giving us excellent value.