Archived Picks



Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels: This game will be played at a neutral field in Mexico. Laa will be the home team. We have small adv across the board starting pitching, bullpen, and offense. Miley is in for a small regression but he is keeping the ball down not walking batters and with a strong Houst infield he has been effective. Cahill a sinker baller on the other hand is a mess. 9HR given up so far in only 30.3 inngs of work. When Cahill sinker is not sinking he is very hittable. With the elevation for this game this is not a spot for Cahill to get right sided.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers over Toronto Blue Jays: We have a med disadvantage in the bullpen however the gap in starting pitching more than makes up for it still providing us with value. Minor is pitching at an elite level and although he may be in line for some minor regression his under the hood numbers actually have him with an XERA of 2.42. Minor BAA is 179 with an excellent ratio of 39K vs. 12BB. Thornton has been adequate however I do not expect him to go more than 5 inngs and he is giving up a hit per inng. I also give Tex a small adv on offense.

New York Islanders vs Carolina Huricanes

New York Islanders over Carolina Hurricanes game 3 Incl OT: 2 losses at home has Nyi in a must win situation. Must win does not mean they will win. However plus money on a game which like the first 2 will be a low scoring 1 goal game is the value. Worst case Nyi deserved a split at home but that was not the case but it does lend to a higher than should be line tonight. In addition 36 year old McElhinney will get the start for Car with Mrazek out. McElhinney was good in relief but coming in with no notice vs. starting is 2 different issues.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds over New York Mets: The starting pitching for this game is a complete mis-match but it is not being priced this way. Castillo has been every bit as good as his surface stats. Control has improved and is holding batters to a 168 BAA. Vargas has a 313 BAA 10K and 9BB as well as given up 3HR in only 15 inngs of work. We also have a small adv in the bullpen. Diaz has worked 3 straight days. Nym will likely have to eat more inngs out of the bullpen as well with Castillo expected to much deeper into this game.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Boston Celtics over Milwaukee Bucks game 2: Bost comes in and dominates game 1 and now the markets expect a big response from Mil. Perhaps but at this line Mil winning does not mean they cover. This line is virtually the same as game 1. Bost is deep talented and experienced. They will not lack focus or be intimidated by this situation. Bost goes as Kyrie goes. He is engaged and motivation. Bost strategy is obvious. Crowd the paint make Mil beat with outside shots. Mil is young being the favorite and being hunted is new for them.

Cincinnati Reds vs Saint Louis Cardinals

Saint Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds: We get a buy low sell high situation here. Gray surface stats look not bad. In his 5 starts 2 were against Pitts 1 against Mia weak hitting teams. Meanwhile Flaherty 3 out of his 5 starts were against Mil. There is still nothing wrong with his stuff he has 32K in 24 inngs. I expect a correction coming for both these starters. We get a med adv on offense and a small adv in the bullpen as well. I have this game at 1.49 giving us excellent value.

 

Colorado Avalanche vs San Jose Sharks

San Jose Sharks over Colorado Avalanche game 2 incl OT: Sj was prime for the taking in game 1 off the draining series with Veg but Col could not take adv. Yes Col was impressive in taking down Cal but has them overrated. They had a large home away dichotomy all year. Against top 10 teams they were 10-21. If Grubauer outplays Jones so be it but the depth and balance points to Sj. I have this game at 1.40 giving us excellent value.

Dallas Stars vs Stl Blues

Stl Louis Blues over Dallas Stars game 2 including OT: Not sure why the markets continues to doubt Stl. Stl has been the best team in the NHL during 2019. Binnington has not wilted under the playoff pressure and is every bit as good as Bishop. Expect more of the same as game 1 a low scoring tough checking game. I have this at 1.53 giving us excellent value.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Boston Bruins

Columbus Blue Jackets over Boston Bruins game 1 including OT: This is a rest vs. fatigue situation. Clb could have trouble finding their legs in the 1st period but if they come out of that stanza at least equal I like their chances especially at this price. Bost comes off the 7 game series against Tor with little rest and prep time. Tough to see how Bost will have much gas in the tank for game 1 even at home. I have this game at 1.10 giving us excellent value.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trailblazers

Portland Trailblazers over Oklahoma City Thunder game 5: Port has a chance to close this series out at home. George is not 100% with a shoulder injury. Westbrook always gives full effort but his shot is not falling. Kanter has done a very good job filling in for Nurkic. A healthy McCollum and the superb Lillard isnot something Okc has been able to contain. I have this game at 5.0 giving us excellent value.

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