Archived Picks

Vegas Golden Knights vs Chicago Blackhawks

Vegas Golden Knights over Chicago Blackhawks: These 2 teams go back to back with Veg up 3-0. Although Fluery played well yesterday it will likely be back to Lehner today. Back to back with the youth and depth obviously favors Veg. Chic has been competitive they are not going to just roll over but tough to see where they summon the energy if they fall behind again in game 4. I have this game at 2.05 giving us excellent value.

New York Islanders vs Washington Capitals

New York Islanders over Washington Capitals: Wash has the reputation which has this line higher than it should be. We have an adv in net with Varlamov over Holtby. Wash will be without a key player in Backstrom. In game 1 Wash jumped out to a 2-0 lead mid way through the 2nd period. Both goals were on the PP. Wash had 7 PP to Nyi 4 in game 1. Wash only had 26 total shots in the game and only 14 were at EV strength. In other words as long as Nyi stay out of the box for game 2 a win is likely. People will auto bet a zig zag in the playoffs without going under the hood.

Montreal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia Flyers over Montreal Canadiens: Give Mtl all the credit beating Pitts in 4 games. Price has turned back the clock. That series may have turned on the game 1 OT victory. Now the task becomes much tougher. Mtl like Chic is another team that likely would not be here without the revised format. Hart is also playing very well and can make the goaltending equal. Phil went 3-0 in their round robin. Phil is a big deep well balanced scoring team that just wears opposition down. It would not surprise if they make it to the east finals.

Chicago Blackhawks vs Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights over Chicago Blackhawks Game 1: Lehner is expected to start for Veg vs. Crawford we get a med adv in goal. Chic would not even be here if not for the revised playoff format. That does not indicate they will roll over however it does point to the gap in these 2 teams. Chic is going to find the going much tougher than facing Edm who plays a similar undisciplined game like Chic. Chic is very weak defensively. Unless Crawford stands on his head this is a mis-match. Veg is also expected to get back Pacioretty providing even more depth.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets

Washington Nationals over New York Mets: This is a pitching re-match which we won from 08/04. Venue changes circumstances remain value is present. Matz velocity is down. Corbin went 5.6 against Nym last time out he did give up 8 hits but was able to K8 as well limiting the damage. We have a med adv in SP. Although statistically the bullpens are equal Wash sets up better for this one than Nym giving us a small adv here. Wash offense has really underperformed so far while the Nym are where expected.

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates: Musgrove was due to start for Pitts but a sore ankle will have him sidelined. Brault is expected to be the opener but regardless only specify the Det pitcher or simple bet action. Brault faced Det Fri threw 32 pitches did not get an out. 3 hits 3BB 4ER. He will not go deep and although both bullpens are overused and bad Pitts is in worse shape. Turnbull is decent pitcher on a bad team. Det is much better against LH. Pitts is expected to be without 3baseman Evans one of their better hitters.

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat

Phoenix Suns over Miami Heat: Phx is 4-0 since entering the bubble. They are in a chase for 8th in the west with Mem. Mia is virtually home and cooled off. They will likely be without Butler,Nunn and Dragic. I have this game at 3.5 giving us excellent value.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics over Houston Astros: Oak has won 7 in a row and their bats have still not got going. Oak is 5-0 when LH starts. Worst case we are equal on offense although Houst will be down Springer and their offense has struggled all year as well. Pitching for Oak Montas we have a med adv over Valdez. Montas should go deeper in this game and his stuff is nasty. He does not give up the long ball but walks this year have been an issue. Bullpen we also have a med adv. Both bullpens have been used a lot lately however Oak sets up better.

Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox: These 2 teams and pitchers faced each other on 07/28 with Clev winning 4-3. Clev is 8-6 and have not come close to hitting well yet. Their success the deep talented starting pitching of which Civale fits right in. High strike outs good control and not susceptible to the long ball. He is a particular tough match up for Chic with their heavy right hitting line up. Chic really misses Anderson to set the table and they also be without Encarnacion tonight. Cease is still a work in progress and gives up an alarming number of long balls.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves

Toronto Blue Jays over Atlanta Braves: We will give small adv to Atl in relief and offense. However the offensive gap is minimal with both Adams and Albies out for Atl. The med adv creating the value is in the starting pitching. Toussaint is in the rotation because Foltynewicz was dropped. Toussaint spent July in quarantine. Toussaint is past the point of prospect a 1st round 2014 pick from Ariz. Pearson is an ace in waiting. A 2017 1st round pick for Tor. Pearson made his debut in Wash a very solid 5 innngs.