Archived Picks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies over Detroit Tigers: Phil under any standard is having a disappointing season. However they are right there in a battle for a playoff spot. Det is just a mess and their prime trade deadline chip will go tonight Boyd. This is likely his last start for Det. Boyd started out great he has been able to maintain his big K rate but results have regressed. Conversely Nola really struggled to begin the year but he has returned to his ace form. I have this game at 1.53 giving us excellent value.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants over New York Mets: Nym lost a 16 inng game and than a 10 inng game last night. What a lost season for them. The Giants are streaking. They have now reached the 500 mark 14-2 in their last 16 as they try to convince mgmt. to buy instead of sell. We will rate the offenses equal for this one. In the bullpen we have a med adv. Starting pitching also a med adv. Samardzjia is in the best form he has been in for awhile. Locket will get a spot start based on injury to Wheeler not because of merit. His AAA numbers are mediocre his 2 starts in June with NYM were awful.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks over Milwaukee Brewers: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. We will have a small adv in the bullpen. Starting pitching will give us a med adv. Gonzalez gets his 1st start since May 27th having suffered arm fatigue. Gonzalez is a junk ball lefty who rarely strikes anyone out. Being a feel pitcher this is a very difficult spot for him. Greinke is off a tough start vs. Stl after coming out of the all star break. I expect a bounce back tonight. I have this game at 1.42 giving us excellent value.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Saint Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates over Saint Louis Cardinals: Pitts did not have a good weekend in Chic and that has led to additional value for this game. We will take a small disadv in the bullpen for this one. We will however has a small adv on offense. Pitts had a rough weekend in Chic but STl has hit 233 in their last 10 vs. Rh pitching. Starting pitching I will rank even Musgrove and Mikolas are mirror images of each other. Neither strikes out many both do not pitch deep into games. MIkolas has been more susceptible to the HR. I have this game at 1.12 giving us excellent value. 

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers

San Francisco Giants over Milwaukee Brewers: Mil is 12-14 on the year when a LH starts. Sf has been better on the road than at home this year. Anytime you bet on SF you are concerned about them scoring enough runs. However the reality is they have been playing much better of late. SF is 8-2 in their last 10. Mil is 8-15 in their last 23. Mil offense has struggled for some time. Given current form we will rate the offenses equal. Hader pitched 2 inngs and threw 26 pitches last night. We will also rate the bullpens equal. What we do have is a med adv in starting pitching.

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs: Sox are 17-12 vs. Lh on the year. Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 and continue to struggle especially on the road where they are only 17-26. We will rate the bullpens and offenses equal for this one. I will rate the starting pitching a med adv for Sox. Sox are 12-4 when Giolito starts. He got off to a torrid start and negative regression has hit however not to the degree of where this line sits. Giolito still has a 191 BAA 115K 33BB and only given up 9HR in 96.0 inngs of work.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners

Oakland Athletics over Seattle Mariners: Only specify the Oak starter. Kikuchi is awaiting the birth of his first child so even if he goes his mind may be elsewhere not that he is pitching very well anyway. This will be the 4th time Oak gets to see him. His BAA against is 288 and he has already given up 18 HR’s in 91.3 inngs of work. Oak is 11-6 when Anderson starts. Anderson is a ground ball pitcher does not strike many out but does not give up the HR either. We get med adv across the board starting pitching bullpen and offense.

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics over Minnesota Twins: Oak has won 4 in a row. Both these teams rely heavily on the long ball to produce runs. I will rate the offenses equal. I will also rate the bullpens equal although Treinen is expected back for the A’s tonight which will help. I will give Oak a small adv in starting pitching throw in home field and we have excellent value. Fiers is in excellent form he has a 225 BAA and his under the hood numbers are even better than the surface stats. This is a very good home park for him to pitch in. Fiers does not strike out many and depends on his defense.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants: Ariz has played better on the road this year than at home. Vs. Lh to date Ariz is 14-12. We will have a small disadv in the bullpen for this game. I am expecting to have a decent lead that it should not be an issue. We have a med adv on offense. Ariz o the road has hit LH at 310 ba. We also have a med adv in starting pitching. SF has not seen Greinke this year while Ariz hit Pomeranz twice in May very well. Pomeranz has a 303 BAA and has given up 15HRs in only 58.3 inngs of work. His K’s are good at 70 but he has also walked 28.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati Reds: We will rate the offenses and bullpens equal for this one. Chic will have a small adv in starting pitching. Hamels is having an excellent year. His under the hood numbers are just as good as his surface stats. Gray is also having a decent bounce back year. However he struggles to pitch deep into games. His numbers really take a tumble when he heads to the 3rd time through the order. I have this game at 1.31 giving us excellent value.