Archived Picks

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens: At the beg of the year the Clev hype was in full blast. After 3 games the bandwagon is almost empty. We get a chance to buy low on Clev and sell high on Balt.  Sun night for all to see with a +2 turnover margin they still lost and Mayfield is struggling. This is a divisional statement game for Clev. Balt is in a sandwich situation as well. They just finished with Kc and up next is Pitts.  Balt is playing well but Jackson is still more of a runner than thrower. I expect a high scoring game with both 2ndaries suffering injuries.

Saint Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Saint Louis Cardinals over Arizona Diamondbacks: Stl has won 6 in a row 3.5 games up on Mil for the NL central crown. We will rate the offenses equal for this one but with Marte and Peralta out for Ariz those are big holes to fill. Rarely will I lay this much juice on the road but it is warranted here. WE have a med adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching. Flaherty will not win it but his name should be mentioned more for the Cy Young. A 200 BAA his under the hood numbers are even better than his surface stats.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas Jayhawks

West Virginia Mountaineers #373 over Kansas Jayhawks: West Virg turned over the roster on offense but last weeks win over NcSt who has vry good defense was a big confidence builder. Kan is simply a small not very good team. Their win over Bost Coll has the market thinking they have turned things around. However Bost Coll has a terrible def. I have this game at 7.0 giving us excellent value.

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans over Los Angeles Chargers: As we faded Lac 1st home game and covered with Indi we will not hesitate to do so again this Sunday. Lac have a minor home field adv. Lac have cluster injuries in the 2ndary and this is the wrong team to be facing depleted trying to defend the pass. Houst may have the most talented deepest group of receivers in the NFL. The Houst stock is low given what looks like an unimpressive win at home over Jax. 2 items to that. Houst was off that very tough N.O loss.

Saint Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Saint Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs: Despite the depleted Cubs line up we will still give them a small adv on offense. We will have a small adv in the bullpen and also in starting pitching. This is not a fade on Hendricks he is having a typical sold year as a finesse pitcher. However give me the power arm every time and in this case Flaherty who is in excellent form. I have this game at 1.17 giving us excellent value. 

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers over Tampa Bay Rays: We will rate across the board offense bullpen and starting pitching a wash. This line is lower than it should be because Snell is starting for Tb. However he has not pitched since 07/21 coming back from elbow surgery. He is not expected to go more than 3 inngs. It is always an adv for a NL team at home vs. a AL team with inter league play. Yes Tb is chasing Clev Oak in the wild card hunt. However Lad are battling Houst and Nyy for the best record the importance being home field in the playoffs.

Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas

Akron Zips-Central Michigan Chippewas #133 Over: This total has come down huge with the announcement C. Mich QB Dormady is out and RB Ward. The line has been over compensated. The drop off to the back up QB is not that big. Akr can throw the ball and they have a horrible pass def. Even with the injury I made the total 48.5 giving us excellent value.

Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 in NFL brings many over-reactions from week 1.  This game falls in that category. Sea travels east for an early start. Sea has New Orleans up next for a look ahead. Sea won their home game 21-20 over Cinci but is was not impressive. Sea was +2 in turnovers. They were outgained 429-233. The whole world watched as Pitts was destroyed on Sunday night by NE 33-3. I expect a bounce back and for these reasons they are under priced this week. I have this game at 5.5 giving us excellent value. 

Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels

Cleveland Indians over Los Angeles Angels: Trout is day to day and if he does not start this line will go up substantially. We will rate the offenses equal. Clev is 28-17 on the year when a LH starts. We will have a small adv in the bullpen but I expect Laa to have to use their bullpen for much more outs tonight than Clev. We also get a med adv in starting pitching. Sandoval is improving but even on a smooth trip do not expect him to go more than 5 inngs. Bieber has allowed 2 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Outstanding ratio of 233K vs 38BB.