Betting Tips

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Betting basics for NCAAF

The college football season is just underway so a good time to review some of the basics of betting this sport.

There are many similarities handicapping NCAAF and NFL as well there are many differences. Much like starting pitchers in baseball the QB in football can make or break your bets.

: Recency bias NFL style

With the NFL regular season kicking off shortly this is a good time to remind you about the danger of overreacting. Nowhere is this a greater problem than with the NFL however it applies to all sports. Do not be a Joe be a Pro. Recency bias is betting based on the most recent game or 1 weeks of games in other words small sample sizes.

Be a contrarian find the value

We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. I will talk about this highly misunderstood word “value” in sports betting in an upcoming grapevine.  In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team, they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before.

NFLX 2022 Kick off

Believe it or not the 2022 NFLX schedule is about to get underway. We will bet the occasional NFLX game although our tolerance for value (our line vs. the line at the sports book) is higher. There are some years where the results of NFLX outperform that of the regular season. It is the one time where the head coaches tell you exactly their game plan. QB rotation how long the starters will play what areas they want to focus on etc. etc.

Betting adjustments MLB 2nd half

In every sport as the season moves along handicapping adjustments need to be made however in baseball the adjustments are more pronounced in my opinion.

 The weather heats up the ball travels farther scoring goes up. The games become more and more important the pressure increases especially with the added wild card. More teams will remain in the race longer teams and players that are not used to playing important games in September. Look for teams that have the experience dealing with races coming down to the wire as well as managers that have been through the wars.

2022 MLB All-star break

The close of the baseball menu Sunday will bring us to the all-star break. Monday July 18th up to including Wednesday July 20th there will be no games (at least the sports I bet on) no plays. I will be tweeting throughout this period. There are 6 games on Thursday July 21st so we will be back at it than.

I am not whining far from it but I am up every day at 4:30am 7 days a week putting in long long hours especially through the fall and winter months when the schedule is heavier handicapping games monitoring lines for value. These are the ONLY 3 days off I get all year.

What is your mission statement?

As we inch closer to the fall and football season towards a busy time, I think it would be helpful to review my mission statement motto call it what you want “Sports betting as a business” I suggest you have a mission statement for yourself summarizing what you want your overall goal for sports betting.

Welcome to the daily grind

WOW we are already over 6 months into our 2022 betting year. I am in my 24th year of doing this as my primary source of income. All that means is I am old. Before you know it, football will be starting up again. Where does the time go?

Use social media to your advantage

In order for you to remain mobile following me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, allows you to be notified of a new pick(s) have been posted rather than you having to constantly check. Following me on social media will ensure you do not miss any plays and help you get the best line possible. If you wait too long after I release a pick(s) to bet the line likely will have moved against you losing potential value.