Betting Tips

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Amazon Fire stick

I will preface this grapevine by stating I have NO financial interest in recommending this product/service.

For the last 3 years my TV channels were provided through an Android box. I recently came across someone selling the Amazon fire stick and I have switched and very happy with the service.

First of all for the sports bettor it is great. All the sports packages NBA league pass, NFL Sunday ticket, NHL center ice, MLB extra innings, ACC,  Fox sports channels, Big 10, CBS and NBC sports network, Pac 12, NFL red zone, ESPN and more…

Betting tips for the tool chest

Over the course of your sports betting career, you are going to lose a chunk of wagers for a million different reasons. A missed field goal, a meaningless 3 pointer, a wild pitch, an empty net goal. The list goes on and on.

Some of these bet busting phenomena are out of your hands and are just part of the 45-47% no matter how good we are that are going to end up in the loss column. However some losing bets leave you smacking yourself in the forehead wondering “What the heck was I thinking?”

Value only never overpay

Let us continue to talk about the most important and misunderstood concept in sports betting “VALUE” Anyone who states that value does not matter if you do not have the winner has no clue and should give up this endeavor right now.

Most misunderstood word in sports betting

The next 2 grapevines we will devote to the most misunderstood word/concept in sports betting VALUE!

Value in sports betting is the equivalent to location in business. Both are essential to profit long term.

 If you “like” a particular side but you bet into a bad line (overpriced) you will NOT make money over the long haul. Value betting/handicapping is betting the right team at the right price. You cannot have one without the other. If you have no edge in other words weakness in the line for a given game than your optimal bet size is ZERO.

It is YOUR money

If you do your own handicapping please make sure you do not rely on your friends, peers, talking heads on TV, or anyone else for that matter to help you make your betting selections. Consensus decision making does not work in conventional business and it especially does not work in this business.

Be a contrarian

We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before.

 Look for teams that are winning but when you search under the hood you find misleading results. For example:

@ricksteel99 keeps you up to date/mobile

In order for you to remain mobile following me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and or the app allows you to be notified of a new pick(s) have been posted rather than you having to constantly check. Following me on social media will ensure you do not miss any plays and help you get the best line possible. If you wait too long after I release a pick(s) to bet the line likely will have moved against you losing potential value.

Money line break even %’s chart

I thought I would provide you with a reference chart that you can print out keep handy as you are handicapping games.

On the left is when you are on a money line favorite and on the right is when you are on a money line underdog. The % is the amount of times you will need to win that game at that corresponding line in order to break even.

My motto my mission statement

Since we are about to end our forced pause thankfully and head into a very busy stretch I think it is a good time to review. “SPORTS BETTING AS A BUSINESS”

 From day 1 over 20 years ago even in the not successful times I approached sports betting from this perspective. It did not matter what the size of my unit was it did not matter if I was part time or full time it was always about treating this as a business regardless of the profit or loss especially in the early years.

Baseball 2020 Betting Advice

With the MLB season just under 2 weeks away now is a good time to mention a few items to look out for.

Remember there has been an important rule change this year. I think it is stupid but they do not ask my opinion. When a pitcher is brought into the game he must face a minimum of 3 batters. I anticipate this will lead to higher scoring games as far as the side we will have to monitor this situation as the season progresses but watching closely who is and is not available in the bullpen becomes even more important.