As regular readers of my grapevine have heard before sports handicapping is so much more than number crunching to spit out value. When you analyze the box scores the stats the current form of teams constantly ask yourself:
What is real an emerging pattern that will likely continue? Conversely what is not real and is a pattern that will regress to the mean?
Bettors make the big mistake of believing these patterns will continue because it is the easy lazy way of thinking. Something to grab onto a security blanket too place a bet.