Betting Tips

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Understand value understand handicapping

The next 2 grapevines we will devote to the most misunderstood word/concept in sports betting VALUE!

Value in sports betting is the equivalent to location in business. Both are essential to profit long term.

 If you “like” a particular side but you bet into a bad line (overpriced) you will NOT make money over the long haul. Value betting/handicapping is betting the right team at the right price. You cannot have one without the other. If you have no edge in other words weakness in the line for a given game than your optimal bet size is ZERO.

Improve your approach increase your profits


All successful sports bettors go through similar stages. Beginner to average to winning. How long it takes to get through each stage is dependent on how stubborn vs. open minded you are. Here is a list to shorten your learning curve.

1 – There's No Such Thing as a Sure Thing: You can find games that have very good value but the existence of a sure thing in sports betting does not exist. Never over-bet your bankroll--no matter how good a betting situation may appear.

Contrarian approach to sports betting

We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. I will talk about this highly misunderstood word “value” in sports betting in an upcoming grapevine.  In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before.

NCAAF basic betting tips

The college football season is just underway so a good time to review some of the basics of betting this sport.

There are many similarities handicapping NCAAF and NFL as well there are many differences. Much like starting pitchers in baseball the QB in football can make or break your bets.

Review your bets improve your process

Those of you who are regular readers of my Grapevines know how much I stress the importance of post-game review of bets. It keeps you sharp it helps you evaluate teams moving forward and most importantly avoids you making the same mistakes over and over again.

The post-game review is NOT a timely process. So here is a very brief checklist.

Stay current @ricksteel99

In order for you to remain mobile following me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and or the app allows you to be notified of a new pick(s) have been posted rather than you having to constantly check. Following me on social media will ensure you do not miss any plays and help you get the best line possible. If you wait too long after I release a pick(s) to bet the line likely will have moved against you losing potential value.

Money line chart

I thought I would provide you with a reference chart that you can print out keep handy as you are handicapping games.

On the left is when you are on a money line favorite and on the right is when you are on a money line underdog. The % is the amount of times you will need to win that game at that corresponding line in order to break even.

NFLX Let’s GO!

Believe it or not the 2021 NFLX schedule is about to get underway. We will bet the occasional NFLX game although our tolerance for value (our line vs. the line at the sports book) is higher. There are some years where the results of NFLX outperform that of the regular season. It is the one time where the head coaches tell you exactly their game plan. QB rotation how long the starters will play what areas they want to focus on etc. etc.

Create a mission statement

As we inch closer to the fall and football season towards a busy time I think it would be helpful to review my mission statement motto call it what you want “Sports betting as a business” I suggest you have a mission statement for yourself summarizing what you want your overall goal for sports betting.

MLB 2nd half betting adjustments

In every sport as the season moves along handicapping adjustments need to be made however in baseball the adjustments are more pronounced in my opinion.

 The weather heats up means the ball travels farther scoring goes up. The games become more and more important the pressure increases especially with the added wild card. More teams will remain in the race longer teams and players that are not used to playing important games in September. Look for teams that have the experience dealing with races coming down to the wire as well as managers that have been through the wars.