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Submitted by rsteel on
I am sure most of you have heard the phrase the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.
So how does this relate to sports betting? Well as I have mentioned often it is very important to evaluate as objectively as possible your bets after the fact.
You have 3 choices once one of your bets have gone final.
Submitted by rsteel on
As regular readers of my grapevine have heard before sports handicapping is so much more than number crunching to spit out value. When you analyze the box scores the stats the current form of teams constantly ask yourself:
What is real an emerging pattern that will likely continue? Conversely what is not real and is a pattern that will regress to the mean?
Submitted by rsteel on
When I am on losing streak, this question becomes harder to answer for myself. Just joking somewhat.
These are four primary reasons I am a sports handicapper:
1. Freedom especially with today’s technology. No boss no employees no huge capital investment.
2. I love watching sports since I was a kid. The pure competition of humans battling and the sense of not knowing the outcome.
3.I have the aptitude for numbers and how to analyze them which comes naturally to me based on my background and education.
Submitted by rsteel on
What do you believe is your biggest personal challenge to success in sports betting? Let me know if I can help you overcome this obstacle.
Regardless if you participate in this business full or part time, regardless if you want to make serious money a secondary income or treat it as entertainment (no one likes to lose money) a big dose of PATIENCE must be included.
Submitted by rsteel on
1) Being Under Capitalized. Do not be disillusioned to think you can make a full time living on a minimal bankroll. The bankroll for sports betting is the money you have available for your business not money for family living expenses. There is nothing wrong regardless of your bankroll of setting reasonable goals and setting out to methodically build that bankroll similar to reinvesting into your business.
Submitted by rsteel on
With the MLB season 4 days away, we will continue our discussion on how to have a profitable season.
There is a sweet spot in MLB lines from -1.40-1.80 where the public is hesitant to lay the juice. Making picks in this range where appropriate is a common place to find value. In this area you find undervalued favorites which sometimes should be priced -2.00-2.50.
A pitcher who does not get strikeouts and/or ground balls is subject to big innings.
Submitted by rsteel on
We are now less than 2 weeks away from the start of the regular season of MLB. YES!
Baseball represents the highest dollar amount EVERY year (exclusive of Covid) of our total dollars bet. There are 2,592 regular season games. This volume far exceeds any other sport providing us with the most betting opportunities.
Baseball also has a tendency to be streakier than any other sport we bet. It is a long long season a marathon not a sprint. There will be extended winning and losing streaks. Stay on an even keel buckle up the ride will be well worth it.
Submitted by rsteel on
Well despite themselves we will have a 162-game season Yes!
It baffles me when ignorant individuals comment about being degenerate betting such events as pre-season NFL or MLB spring training. It is a true indication they have no concept of sports betting. Value is value regardless if there is weakness in a line for the Super Bowl or Detroit vs. Kansas City in a March baseball game. The money is the same.
Submitted by rsteel on
Obviously filling out a bracket is a different beast than handicapping individual games of the tournament with point spreads.
Remember it is Ok to pass on games regardless how exciting the March madness games are. Remain vigilant in ONLY betting value. If you want action on a game for entertainment purposes, put some pizza money on it for fun that is OK if you must personally, I do not even do that. I will watch to scout the game as I do in all sports for future betting opportunities.
Submitted by rsteel on
Do not be worried about betting against public opinion. Look for over and under reactions to recent games. The official term is recency bias. Be a contrarian in this business that is where you find the value and the money.
Do not play catch up “chasing” by increasing your wagers when losing.
What you save is what you earn. Shop! Shop! Shop! Have a minimum of 3 sports book accounts to ensure you get the best lines possible regardless of the size of your bets. Everything is relative.