Submitted by rsteel on
Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles: Porcello had a rough start prior to the break vs. Tor. He has not been as consistent as prior years. However against a very weak Balt team I expect a bounce back. Porcello is still striking out almost 1 per inng and his numbers are not that far off. With an ERA of 4.12 his XERA comes in at 3.59. Gausman is a target off some at the trade deadline. Balt is 5-14 when he starts. With an ERA of 4.33 his numbers are actually worse coming in with an XERA of 4.60. We get a small adv in starting pitching and in the bullpen and a med adv on offense giving us our value. Bost is 8-2 in their last 10. I have this game at 1.77 giving us excellent value.