San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Some of the value deals with the public betting against a road team going for a 4 game sweep. Although it is not common every game stands on its’ own for me it is a non-factor. The Sf offense has been streaky all year. At this time they are hot. Regardless for this game we will rate the offenses equal. Bullpen we will have a med adv. In addition I fully expect Ariz to need more inngs from their bullpen than Sf. Starting pitching we have a small adv. Bumgarner expectedly has better home than away numbers but he is still pitching well.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Both teams are 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. Based on current form we will rate the offenses equal. Sf will have a med adv in the bullpen. Sf wil also have a med adv with the starting pitching. Leake will make his 3rd start for Ariz coming over from Sea. A 280 BAA and having given up 31 HR’s he is more of an inngs eater than anything else at this stage of his career. Samardzija is having quietly an excellent bounce back year. He is getting stronger as the season as gone on.
Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. Chic has been a bad road team all year sitting at 22-35. We have a small adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching producing the value. Castillo is a true ace with a 188 BAA. Lester has the odd good game but he is definitely on the down side a case of reputation vs reality. A 287 BAA Cinnci has historically hit him well. I have this game at 1.36 giving us excellent value.
Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins: Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum and two young pitchers as well. Mia is 2-8 in their last 10. Atl is 15-5 when Soroka starts. Soroka had a brief swoon in July but has caught a second wind actually getting stronger. Alcantara numbers show he is running out of gas. You really have to string hits together to score off of Soroka. He does not walk people and has only given up 7 HR in 121 inngs of work. Alcantara has 93K but 63BB.
Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles: Sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Value is value. Miley only gets in trouble when he nibbles too much. Bundy is vulnerable to the long ball against this team likely the most complete top to bottom in MLB that is trouble. Houst is 9-1 in their last 10 as they have got healthy. Miley is pitching at an elite level and although he is not flashy with big strike out totals he is not priced as such. Med adv across the board starting pitching, offense and bullpen. I have this game priced at 2.67 giving us excellent value.
Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates: Given current form we will rate the offenses and bullpens equal. The value for this game is with the starting pitching where we have a med adv. Anderson is not spectacular by any stretch but he is consistent. Will give you 5-6 inngs keeps the ball in the park and is holding opponents to a 229 BAA. Brault last pitched on July 5th has been out with a left shoulder strain. Prior he had an ugly ratio 53K vs. 32BB. His ERA is 4.15 however when you go under the hood his numbers more project out to an XERA of 4.52.
San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals: As always when we bet SF scoring runs will be the concern. We will take a small disadv into this one but given the venue that should help. Offsetting this as well we will have a med adv in the bullpen. I also expect Samardzija to go deeper in this game than Fedde. Worst case we have a small adv in starting pitching. Fedde is off his worst start as a pro vs. Atl he went 3.6 inngs giving up 9ER. Confidence could be an issue for this inexperienced guy not used to the pressures of baseball stretch drives.
New York Mets over Pittsburgh Pirates: We will take a small disadv into this one on the bullpens although the Mets bullpen has stabilized given it could not get much worse. I will rate the offenses equal. NYm are 8-2 last 10 Pits 2-8 so we have hot vs. cold. Starting pitching where the value for this one is we have a med adv. Stroman loves the attention and spotlight and for the most part he performs well in big games. HE is having an excellent year and will be anxious to show his new team what he can do.
Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: Given that the Tb offense is not in good form right now I will rate the offenses equal. Give a small adv in the bullpen to Tb although after Castillo pitches an inng as the opener look for Yarbrough to come in as the bulk guy tonight. I expect Yarbrough to go a solid 5-6 so Tor will also need to use their bullpen much more tonight. Give Tb a med adv in pitching with Yarbrough vs. Waguespack. Wag was a 37th round pick in 2012. Tor has no one else. Tb had a 4 inng look at this guy back on May 27th.
Philadelphia Phillies over Detroit Tigers: Phil under any standard is having a disappointing season. However they are right there in a battle for a playoff spot. Det is just a mess and their prime trade deadline chip will go tonight Boyd. This is likely his last start for Det. Boyd started out great he has been able to maintain his big K rate but results have regressed. Conversely Nola really struggled to begin the year but he has returned to his ace form. I have this game at 1.53 giving us excellent value.