New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals: No the Nyy are no where near what they will be with all the injuries. However this has fully been factored in the line today. Bailey is the 2nd worst pitcher in the majors but after 3 starts his numbers look decent. Those starts were at home in the cold masking what he really is BAD! German is probably best suited for middle relief but his stuff is excellent. Control has been an issue early on but last year it was not the case so I assume it is just some mechanics and small sample size.
Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers: Trout may or may not be back for this one but regardless the value is with Laa. It is a toss up as to who is the worst pitcher in MLB. That competition wold be Miller vs Bailey in my opinion. Cahill is no stud be his sinker is helpful in Tex he keeps the ball in the park. Laa get a second quick look at Miller. April 7th they faced him and they like what they saw at home. Mill only lasted 2 inngs. Laa also have a med adv in the bullpen and we will call the offenses equal. I have this game at 1.49 giving us excellent value.
Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw is the wild card in this one but at this price it is well worth the risk. Kershaw makes his season debut after 1 double A rehab start. He comes back from a left shoulder injury. With a smooth trip I project Kershaw to go 5-6 inngs turning it over to a very mediocre Lad bullpen. Castillo starts for Cinci and he has been superb after 3 starts. His numbers under the hood support his success so far. We will give Cinci a small adv in starting pitching and rate the bullpens and offenses equal.
Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: Will not hesitate to come back on TB today despite increased price from yesterday. Snell had a rough 1st start against a very good Houst team . Since than 2 dominating starts against Col and Chw. 24K 1BB. Yes 2 weak hitting teams but so is Tor. Buchholz gets his 1st start of the year after 1 rehab game. Even on a smooth trip he should not go more than 5 turning it over to a weak bullpen. We get a med adv across the board starting pitching, offense and bullpen. I have this game at 2.02 giving us excellent value.
Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays: We get a med adv on offense. We get a med adv in the bullpen. Part of the reason this line is low is Thornton a 5th round draft choice has had 2 decent starts. Det at home Clev on the road in very cold conditions. He may have success 1 time through the order for Tb has never faced him. However my eye test says he is not ready yet. HE would not even be in the rotation if not for injuries. With a smooth trip he goes 5 and than Tor has some trouble in the bullpen after games in Bost. Stanek will be the opener for Tb and probably go 2 inngs.
Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals: Kc has lost 7 in a row. Beckham is questionable for Sea. We will rate the starting pitching equal. Similar pitchers do not strike out many go 6 inngs give up some hits but keep their teams in the game. We will give a small adv in the bullpen to Sea. It is not that their bullpen is so good but Kc is horrible. The real value for this one is on offense where we get a large adv. Sea has hit 32HR in 12 games. They are in excellent form right now. I have this game at 1.21 giving us excellent value.
Tampa Bay Rays over San Francisco Giants: It is opener day again for TB. Stanek will get the 1st inng and we know what he can do. Yarbrough the lefty will follow and with a smooth trip get us to the 6th inng. Samardzija is a reputation vs. reality candidate. His velocity is down his control is a challenge. Tb is a patient old school put the ball in play team. They are not dependent on the long ball. I will give a small adv on offense to Tb as well as in the bullpen. I have this game at 1.38 giving us excellent value.
Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals: Nola won his first time out and did not have his best stuff. This will be the first start for Sanchez and even on a clean trip do not see him going more than 5. This will open up the weak Wash bullpen. Sanchez had a a surprisingly good 2018 I see a regression for him this year. Phil offense is in better form than Wash and we get a small to med adv in the bullpen as well all providing us with the value.
Houston Astros over Tampa Bay Rays: Cole is 28 years old finished 5th in Cy Young last year and entering his prime. Morton had his best 2 years with Houst and is now 35 years old. Houst obviously knows him well. I will give Houst a small adv in SP a med adv in offense with Redick and Correa questionable and will rate the bullpens equal. I have this game at 1.47 giving us excellent value.
Colorado Rockies over Miami Marlins: We get adv across the board fading the rebuilding Mia team. Urena is solid but Freeland has at least a small adv. Freeland started the Col 5th starter last year, ended up the ace and was 4th in Cy Young ballot. This despite pitching half his games in Col. Offense we have at least a med adv as well as the bullpen. If this game were played in June the line would be much higher.