Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers Best of 7 series: Wash was one of the hottest clubs in the second half and needed to be just to get in the playoffs. Lad were on cruise control for most of the year. Lad have the adv in the bullpen as the Wash bullpen has been their weakness the whole year. However on offense the gap is small both teams can smash. Starting pitching I actually give the edge to Wash. Corbin Sanchez is the weak link followed by Strasburg and Scherzer.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Arizona Diamondbacks: Stl has won 6 in a row 3.5 games up on Mil for the NL central crown. We will rate the offenses equal for this one but with Marte and Peralta out for Ariz those are big holes to fill. Rarely will I lay this much juice on the road but it is warranted here. WE have a med adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching. Flaherty will not win it but his name should be mentioned more for the Cy Young. A 200 BAA his under the hood numbers are even better than his surface stats.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs: Despite the depleted Cubs line up we will still give them a small adv on offense. We will have a small adv in the bullpen and also in starting pitching. This is not a fade on Hendricks he is having a typical sold year as a finesse pitcher. However give me the power arm every time and in this case Flaherty who is in excellent form. I have this game at 1.17 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Tampa Bay Rays: We will rate across the board offense bullpen and starting pitching a wash. This line is lower than it should be because Snell is starting for Tb. However he has not pitched since 07/21 coming back from elbow surgery. He is not expected to go more than 3 inngs. It is always an adv for a NL team at home vs. a AL team with inter league play. Yes Tb is chasing Clev Oak in the wild card hunt. However Lad are battling Houst and Nyy for the best record the importance being home field in the playoffs.
Cleveland Indians over Los Angeles Angels: Trout is day to day and if he does not start this line will go up substantially. We will rate the offenses equal. Clev is 28-17 on the year when a LH starts. We will have a small adv in the bullpen but I expect Laa to have to use their bullpen for much more outs tonight than Clev. We also get a med adv in starting pitching. Sandoval is improving but even on a smooth trip do not expect him to go more than 5 inngs. Bieber has allowed 2 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Outstanding ratio of 233K vs 38BB.
Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds: We will rate the bullpens equal for this one. We will have a small adv in offense however given the starting line ups just posted closer to a med adv. Cinci is 1-5 in games started by Bauer since he was acquired from Clev. IT is not due to a lack of run support either. Bauer has really struggled and he does not know what the issues are. When a pitcher even of his quality is out of form it is rare they bounce back in just 1 start usually it is a series of small steps. Nola is an ace in everyway and his numbers back it up.
Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets: Both teams have high home/away dichotomies. Nym after a really hot extended run to get back into playoff contention have cooled off again. Nym have lost 6 in a row after losing at home to Chic yesterday. Phil was off so small adv to Phil here given how late it is in the season. Both bullpens are erratic mediocre at best so we will call that equal. Small adv for Phil on offense given current form and a small adv in starting pitching.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Given the venue we will rate the offenses equal. This line is lower than it should be in part because of the run differential of these 2 teams. Ariz should have a better record SF should have a worse record. However these teams are presently tied in the standings and with a med adv in starting pitching and Ariz best hotter Peralta out more than makes up for the run differential. We also have a small adv in the bullpen giving us excellent value given I have this game at 1.39.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Some of the value deals with the public betting against a road team going for a 4 game sweep. Although it is not common every game stands on its’ own for me it is a non-factor. The Sf offense has been streaky all year. At this time they are hot. Regardless for this game we will rate the offenses equal. Bullpen we will have a med adv. In addition I fully expect Ariz to need more inngs from their bullpen than Sf. Starting pitching we have a small adv. Bumgarner expectedly has better home than away numbers but he is still pitching well.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Both teams are 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. Based on current form we will rate the offenses equal. Sf will have a med adv in the bullpen. Sf wil also have a med adv with the starting pitching. Leake will make his 3rd start for Ariz coming over from Sea. A 280 BAA and having given up 31 HR’s he is more of an inngs eater than anything else at this stage of his career. Samardzija is having quietly an excellent bounce back year. He is getting stronger as the season as gone on.