Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Dodgers Adj series price: This bet is ONLY to be made if you originally bet Lad to win the series We simply do not have any value left on our original bet. The starting pitching is equal heading into the last 3 games. The relief with Jansen reverting back to his old form adv TB. Offense adv remains with Lad. I will now RISK 0.5 unit on Tb +money. If Lad win we will break even if Tb wins we will drink a little juice.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Tampa Bay Rays best of 7 Adj series price: The next 3 games line up for Lad with Buehler Urias and Kershaw as it stands right now. Tb has Morton going tonight and than we will see. However overall Sp adv Lad. Everyone talks about how good the Tb bullpen is and they are but Lad have pitched very well and Jensen has had a resurgence after a up and down regular season. Lastly there is a med adv on offense with Lad vs. Tb. I made the adj series price 2.20 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves Adj series price: The line for game 4 is prohibitive rightfully so but obviously I would expect Lad to win tonight making the series 2-2 and a best of 5. Wilson has not pitched since 09/27 and is not exactly a prospect. It will essentially be a bullpen day and could very well be as well in game 5 for Atl. Neither team after tonight is in good shape pitching wise but Lad have more depth and quality to be in a position to win this series. Regardless as long as Lad win game 4 we will be in a favorable leverage situation if we are forced to lay off.
Houston Astros over Tampa Bay Rays Game 1: Tb has become the market darlings. We will continue to give them a small adv in the bullpen however that for game 1 is minimized given the usage that Tb had for game 5 vs. Nyy. In addition I expect Tb to need more inngs from their bullpen tonight than Houst. I will rate the offenses worst case equal. Sp I give a small adv to Houst. Houst is much more familiar with Snell whilw Tb has had a grand total of 2AB vs. Valdez. Snell has the name and reputation his ERA 3.24 going under the hood he pitched to an XERA of 3.71.
New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays Best of 5 series: Tb is the trendy bet it is their year says the market. I beg to differ. The Nyy had so many injuries through the shortened season. They are healthier than at anytime. We will give the small adv in the bullpen to Tb. We will rate the offenses equal. Starting pitching projection Cole, Tanaka, Happ, vs Snell Glasnow and Morton. I will give a small adv to Nyy. Lastly if this does go 5 and Nyy go back to Cole on 3 days rest against whatever Tb throws out there I like Nyy value. I priced this series at 1.40 giving us excellent value.
Houston Astros over Oakland Athletics Best of 5 series: The market loves to hate on Houst and rightfully so. We do not care we are in the business of value. We will give a small adv in the bullpen to Oak. We will give a small adv to Houst on offense especially with Chapman out. We will rate a small adv to Sp to Houst after game 1. Not sure what we get from McCullers in game 1 since he has been off since Sept 26th. However even with that Bassitt is no better. Projected after this could be Manaea Luzardo followed by Fiers Montas combo.
Chicago White Sox over Oakland Athletics: What is partially fueling this line is the fact Chic is 14-0 when a LH starts. It is relevant but not the main interest for our play. Oak has a small adv in the bullpen they are very good arguably right there with TB in that regard. We get a med adv on offense providing most of the value. LF Jimenez is expected back for Chic while 3B Chapman out for Oak. We also get a small adv in SP. Giolito under the hood numbers are even better than surface stats. An ERA of 3.48 with an XERA comes in at 2.38.
Tampa Bay Rays over New York Mets: Nym are 6-14 when a LH starts. Tb is 1 win away from clinching the division while Nym are slim to none of making the post season. We will rate the offenses equal. We gat a med adv in starting pitching and the bullpen. I have this game priced at 1.42 giving us excellent value.
Toronto Blue Jays over Philadelphia Phillies Game 1: Tor just got whacked by Nyy so their stock is low. Phil is not exactly lighting it up themselves. No Realamuto no Hoskins and likely no Segura today will not help. This will be a 7 inng game so Tor will have a small adv in the bullpen. Offenses we will rank even. Starting pitching we will also rank even. Ray gives up the long ball his control is brutal but his stuff is nasty. He has shown some improvement since Walker has got a hold of him.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds: Small adv across the board throw in home field and we have value. Wainwright is well paced his prime on the downside of his career but he knows how to pitch goes deep into games. He is in excellent form right now. This is not a fade against Castillo he is pitching well and can certainly K much better than Wainwright. However if this game is tight/tied in the late inngs adv still goes to Stl who has a small adv as well in the bullpen. Cinci is 2-6 when Castillo starts while Stl is 5-1 when Wainwright starts.