Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs: We will rate the offenses equal for this game. Wsox will have a small adv in the bullpen anchored by Colome who is having an excellent season to date. Starting pitching we have a med adv. Lester at 35 years of age is struggling. A 278 baa his under the hood numbers are even worse. Giolito is having a break out year. Is some neg regression on the horizon perhaps but at this price it is worth the risk. A 180 baa he has only given up 5 Hr in 81 inngs of work. Chic is 11-2 where he starts. I have this game at 1.12 giving us excellent value.
Milwaukee Brewers over San Diego Padres: A fair amount of juice to lay on the road but we still have value. We get a small adv on offense and in the bullpen. We get a med adv in starting pitching. A LH Allen will get his first major league start for SD. He is a prospect but he is not here on merit but rather because Margevicius has been bad. Allen is only 22 years of age and would be considered a work in progress given his AAA results. Allen was an 8th round pick of Bost in 2015. He came over in the Kimbrell trade. Mil is 12-2 when Woodruff starts.
Milwaukee Brewers over San Francisco Giants: Mil is 10-8 vs. LH so far on the year. We will rate the bullpens equal for this one. We get a med adv on offense. Vs. RH at home Sf hits 193. Starting pitching we also get a med adv. Mil is 9-4 when Davies starts. Davies is a poor mans Kyle Hendricks of the cubs. Davies relies on control. Does not strike out many keep the ball in the park. When you have a weak hitting club like Sf asking them to string hits together to score runs is difficult. This is a good venue for Davies stuff to pitch at. We faded Pomeranz last time out vs.
Cleveland Indians over Cincinnati Reds: Both teams are struggling on offense. However we will still have a small adv here. Bullpens I will rank even with Hand having gone 2 inngs yesterday. I will rank the starting pitching small adv but it could be larger. Plesac has been a big surprise granted only 3 starts. However those were against Wsox, Bost and Nyy. He takes a step down in class today. Perhaps his bubble bursts hopefully not today and at this price it is worth the risk. Plesac has only given up 2 HRs and held opponents to a 209 BAA.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Miami Marlins: Mia had a brief taste of success when their offense came to life. However they have reverted to what they are. Mis has lost 5 in a row scoring a total of 9 runs. Stl is a positive regression candidate on offense when not sure but even without we get a small adv against this opponent. We also get a med adv in the bullpen. Hernandez gets the start and call up for Mia with the injury to Smith. Hernandez has done well at AAA but in brief stints in the majors he has not been good.
Chicago White Sox over Kansas City Royals: WE will have a med adv in the bullpen for this one. Backed by Colome having an excellent season the Kc bullpen is a dumpster fire. We will also have a small adv on offense. Keller is OK for Kc. A sinker baller keeps the ball down does not strike many out keeps the ball in the park and depends on his defense. Giolito has always had nasty stuff but this year less thinking more throwing he has put it together. Chic is 9-2 when he starts. Giolito has 78K only 20BB a 186 BAA and a 0.95 WHIP. I have this game at 1.38 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants: Value is value regardless of the line and I have this game at 2.55 giving us excellent value. Lad are 9-0 so far when Kershaw starts. Pomeranz is trying to hold on to his spot in the rotation. He has not made it past 5 inngs in 5 straight starts. Pomeranz has given up 11HR in only 39 inngs of work. When a pitcher is this far out of form it usually takes more than 1 start to come back. Lad were off yesterday Sf is coming home off a day game in Ny. Lad are 8-2 in their last 10. Sf is the 2nd worst team in the NL above only Mia.
Miami Marlins over Milwaukee Brewers: Over the course of a long season no matter how bad the team is will go through some good runs. Mia is in one right now. 4W in a row 7-3 in their last 10 the offense has come to life as some of the young guys start to figure it out. We get a small adv on offense. Mia is hitting 312 in their last 10 vs. RH. Mil is hitting 230 in their last 10 vs. LH and are just 8-8 on the year. WE have a med disadv in the bullpen. I am expecting Smith to pitch deeper into the game and hopefully we have a big lead to hold on to.
Oakland Athletics over Los Angeles Angels: Not often in baseball you will have a situational portion of handicap but we have one here. Laa played in Sea Sunday afternoon. They had to travel to Chic yesterday for an afternoon make up game. Now they are back home to face Oak tonight. This will also be the 1st time Canning will face a team for a 2nd time. Canning numbers are good however he has given up 6HRS in only 32.6 inngs of work. He has faced weak competition and see him as a small negative regression candidate. Montas had a rare bad start against Laa.
Washington Nationals over Cincinnati Reds: Wash is 2-10 when Scherzer starts. Combine this with the awful bullpen of Wash and the markets have moved in on Cinci. I will buck that and put my money on Wash. Scherzer numbers are not that far off his BAA at 251 is a little high but nothing wrong with his stuff. 77.6 inngs 102K vs. 17BB. Gray has rebounded from his stay in Ny but is still not at the level of Scherzer. Gray also does not pitch deep into games. I will rate the offenses equal give a med adv to Cinnci in the bullpen.