Oakland Athletics over Toronto Blue Jays: We will take a small adv into this one with the starting pitching. Tor is 12-25 vs. LH. The XERA of Manaea is a run lower than Stroman. However the majority of value is on offense and bullpen. Oak went into a 3 game series at Col and scored 4 runs. That is hard to do and they were in good form heading into that series. 2 games back at home they have scored 16 runs. Go figure. With the trades at the deadline we have also a med adv in the bullpen which should allow us to close this out with minimal drama. I have this game at 1.44.
San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres: No reason not to come right back on SF again today. Rookie Rodriquez has been a pleasant surprise since being called up. SF is 7-2 in the games he has started. A 236 BAA with a very good ratio of 47K vs. 15BB. Richard is a serviceable mediocre left hander. Soft tossing with only 96K vs. 53BB. He has had 2 bad starts since the all star break. This will be the 4th time this year SF will have seen him. SF over 153 AB is hitting 353 off him. SD has lost 6 in a row and are 2-13 over their last 15.
Colorado Rockies over Saint Louis Cardinals: ONLY specify the Col starting pitcher. Under the radar the markets have not picked up on how well Anderson is pitching. A BAA of 229 and his July is even better. He is in excellent form. Martinez is a very good pitcher however this year he has been plagued by injury. He will attempt to come off the DL again tonight with a right oblique strained that is supposedly healed. Martinez has not had the control of prior years with a ratio of 89K vs 48BB. Col is 8-2 in their last 10. Both offenses are struggling so we rate them even.
San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres: Both teams are struggling for wins. Sandoval and McCutchen are questionable for SF. Both those items have already been fully factored in the line. We will rate both offenses weak and equal. With the trades for SD in the bullpen I will rate the SF bullpen with a small adv. This brings us to starting pitching. Holland is a veteran who has bounced between bullpen and starting. The best I can say is he is serviceable. His stuff is still good striking out on avg 1 per inn with only 39BB.
Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays: With the trade of Happ Tor will have a bullpen day with Axford getting the start. I do not expect him to go more than 2 inngs. Giolito is 24 years old a 2012 1st round pick. The potential is there what is blocking him is a mechanical flaw causing control issues. His stuff is wicked. Regardless Chic has home field adv while everything about this game starting pitching offense and bullpen worst case is even. I have this game at pick-em while the book line we get plus money.
Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres: Perdomo is still in spring training mode getting off to a late start. The results to date not very good. A 329 BAA. Sd is 1-7 in the games he has started. Greinke is having another solid Greinke year. Keeps the ball in the park excellent control 137K more than 1 per Inng and only 24 walks. Sd is 2-8 in their last 10 Ariz is 16-7 in their last 23 on the road. Given the venue I will rate the offenses equal. With the Sd trades we get a small adv in the bullpen and a med adv in starting pitching giving us our value.
Milwaukee Brewers over Washington Nationals: Wash may be the biggest disappointment this year. The chemistry on this team is horrible. Roark has been in very bad form for awhile. When a pitcher is off this badly it rarely only takes 1 start to get back on track. Roark is 0-3 and a 9.56 ERA. Rookie Peralta after 7 starts granted a small sample size is off to a good start. Wash has never faced him before so the first time through the line up that will help. In 37 inngs a 144 BAA with an excellent ratio of 50K vs. 18BB.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds: Stl suffered a brutal loss last night. Their rookie pitcher Poncedeleon was no hitting Cinnci for 7 inngs. Cinnci tied it up with 2 outs and than went on to win with a blown save by Norris. What is hidden is that Cinci after a hot streak continues to struggle. Stl will start a 24 year old left hander Gomber who has made 15 relief appearances. In addition he has good numbers in AAA Memphis. However this bet is mostly fading Bailey who makes his 1st start since 05/28 from a knee injury. He was brutal prior to the injury.
Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles: Porcello had a rough start prior to the break vs. Tor. He has not been as consistent as prior years. However against a very weak Balt team I expect a bounce back. Porcello is still striking out almost 1 per inng and his numbers are not that far off. With an ERA of 4.12 his XERA comes in at 3.59. Gausman is a target off some at the trade deadline. Balt is 5-14 when he starts. With an ERA of 4.33 his numbers are actually worse coming in with an XERA of 4.60.
Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels : Houst is 10-4 in their last 14 and that is with their offense struggling. Verlander limped at least for him into the break. Tropeano will get his 1st start since 06/10 when he went on the DL with right shoulder issues. Even with a smooth trip 5-6 inngs should be his max which will expose a vulnerable Laa bullpen. We get a med adv in starting pitching and a small adv in the bullpen. I will rate the offenses equal. I have this game at 2.07 giving us excellent value.