Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies: Phil has had a good year but are now fading from the playoff picture as Atl inches closer to clinching. Phil is equivalent to Sea in the AL. Phil has a -12 run differential they are weak defensively and are 12 games under on the road. Phil is 6-12 in their last 18. Pivetta has pitched 154 inngs and indications in his numbers show he is running out of gas. Teheran is hit and miss his control is an issue however not his stuff. He has a BAA of 198. His under the hood numbers are better than his surface stats.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Atlanta Braves: We will rate the offenses and bullpens even for this early start. The real value is in the starting pitching. Flaherty has burst on the scene 193BAA 168K in only 138 inngs his under the hood numbers just as good as the surface stats. Flaherty has almost a full season under his belt and is prospering in the heat of the pennant race. Toussaint also has upside and he also finds himself in the heat of things however without the current year resume and experience that Flaherty has.
Detroit Tigers over Cleveland Indians: Clev is 19-18 on the year vs. LH. Therefore they have not performed as well vs. southpaws. Now they enter the last 3 weeks where the interest in winning is second to getting everyone rested and healthy. Boyd has pitched well especially in the second half. He has a BAA of 218. Tomlin has not made a start since 05/15. He has pitched so bad he was relegated to the bullpen where he has also performed horrible. Velocity is way down and HR way up. Even on a smooth trip he will not go more than 4.
Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers: Mil has struggled all year vs. LH going 15-18. Hamels has been great since coming over from Tex. Chic is 6-0 in his starts. His velocity is up he is 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Chic is 10-2 in their last 12. Davies has not made a start since 05/29 due to rotator cuff and back problems. We get a small adv in the SP and bullpen and I will rate the offenses equal. Ihave this game at 1.33.
San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks: Sf with the win last night has made it back to 500. However the job ahead is difficult with Posey now out for the year weakening an already bad offense. However Ariz has not scored a run in 23 inngs. For this match-up I will rate the offenses equal along with both teams having very good bullpens. The starting pitching gives Sf a med adv. Rodriquez has been a huge surprise since being called up in May. In his last stat coming off the DL he pitched well against Tex.
Atlanta Braves over Tampa Bay Rays: Give Tb all the credit in the world. A scrappy hard nose team that never quits. 9 games over 500 they are a huge surprise. Manager Kevin Cash thinks outside the box and he deserves the attention because it has worked with a team on a very tight budget. Tb has won 8 in a row and it is not often I go against hot teams especially laying a price. However Tb has a big home/away dichotomy. They are only 29-37 on the road. This will be another bullpen game for Tb. Stanek will start and likely go a max of 2 inngs.
Oakland Athletics over Minnesota Twins: Oak is 43-17 last 60 14-6 for the month of Aug. We will rate the offenses equal. We get a med adv in the bullpen. Starting pitching we also get a med adv with a bit of an unknown. What is known Fiers has reallt picked it up since coming over from Det. Lefty Gonsalves has had a really good year in AA and AAA. He was a 4th round draft pick in 2013. He was rocked in his 1st major league start not getting past the 2nd inng and that was against the White Sox.
Chicago White Sox over Detroit Tigers: Both these teams are very bad. Having said that the money when you win is the same as any game. Both bullpens are horrible so we will call that a wash. The offenses I also rank equal although Chic is currently in better form. That leaves starting pitching where we get a med adv. Carpenter is not exactly a prospect. He was drafted in the 7th round of 2011. If it was going to happen it already would have. Being left handed keeps him in the game. His upside is middle relief. He has given up 7 HR in only 18 inngs pitched.
Philadelphia Phillies over Toronto Blue Jays: Phil has hit 312 vs. Lh last 10 games. Borucki started out well which has this line lower than it should be. He is no prospect and projects as best a 5th starter on a bad team. Ramos is expected back for Phil. It was a bad start to the year for Arrieta he has pitched better but remains inconsistent. However at this price and with the Borucki confidence on the decline the value is with Phil.
Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres: Despite the amount of juice to spot at home we still get excellent value. SD is 3-7 their last 10 Col striving to a playoff spot 8-2. Col is 27-20 vs. LH Sd is 13-26. Myers and Villanueva are doubtful for SD. They simply do not have a deep enough club to sustain these injuries. Lucchesi is having a decent first full season. However he is coming on to 100 inngs pitched for the first time. His current ERA of 3.79 translates to an XERA based on his numbers of 4.11. Meanwhile Freeland has turned into the ace of the Col staff. Col is 16-9 when he starts.