Stl. Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs: Molina is out for Stl. Closer Hicks threw 35 pitched yesterday so he will likely not be available. These 2 issues have contributed to the line being lower than it should be. We will give Chic a small adv on offense. They have been in better form although Stl offense has underperformed for the last few weeks. We will rate the bullpens equal. THst leaves stating pitching where we have a med adv. Quintana depends onnthe defense does not have over powering stuff. On a good day he will give you 6 inngs. This year his BAA so far is 263.
Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals: We will head into this one with a small disadv in the bullpen. Offenses I will rank even although Atl is in better form at the moment. Stl has hit 219 over their last 10 games vs. RH. Atl is 8-2 in their last 10 Stl is 5-15 in their last 20. The value for this one is in the starting pitching where we have a med adv. Soroka has been outstanding in his 1st full year. He has only given up 1 HR in 44.6 inngs. 41K vs. 14BB with a 159 BAA. His under the hood numbers are just as good as the surface stats.
Minnesota Twins over Los Angeles Angels: We will rate the bullpens equal for this one however I fully expect Laa will need to cover more outs from their bullpen than Minn. Harvey is not pitching deep into games. We will give Minn a small adv on offense. Laa are already 4-12 vs. LH pitching. Laa in their last 10 games are hitting 192 vs. LH. Simmons is also out for Laa which hurts the offense but even more so on defense. Starting pitching we have a med adv. Harvey is no longer a fire baller. Only 34K in 45.6 inngs of work with 20BB.
Chicago Cubs over Washington Nationals: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. We will have a med adv in the bullpen. Not only is the Wash bullpen horrible they will be expected to pitch more inngs than Chic bullpen tonight. Hellickson has gone less than 6 inngs in 6 straight starts. He has a lousy ratio of 29K vs 17BB and a 289 BAA. Not only does he not strike batters out he has given up 8HR in only 36 inngs of work. Hendricks got off to a slow but he is in excellent form right now. His under the hood numbers are just as good as the surface stats supporting his ERA.
Minnesota Twins over Seattle Mariners: We will start with the bullpen where we have a small adv. Offense we have a med adv. Sea at home against right handed pitching are hitting 198. Starting pitching we also have a med adv. I expect a bounce back for Berrios after a bad start at home vs Laa. Leblanc will make his first start since 04/12 coming off the DL from a right oblique strain. It will only be his 3rd start of the year. Even with a smooth trip do not expect him to go more than 5. The only adv Sea has for this one is home field.
Houston Astros over Boston Red Sox: Both teams were off yesterday so no adv there. Houst now has the best record in MLB. 8W in a row 9-1 in their last 10. Bost after a slow start is also playing well. I will rate the offenses equal for this one. TheBost bullpen has been a pleasant surprise so far this year after letting Kimbrel go but Houst still has a small adv. SP Houst has a med adv. The name Porcello still carries much eight from his Cy Young year. However he is far removed from that. His numbers look good but his last 4 starts came against Det, Oak, WSox, and Sea.
Houston Astros over Detroit Tigers: Not often you will find me spotting this type of juice especially on the road. However value is value. I have this game at 2.28 giving us excellent value. Miley is solid and consistent. Usually will give you 6 very good inngs. That will turn it over to an excellent Houst bullpen where we have a med adv. Houst is 8-3 vs. LH so far while Det is 3-3. We get a large adv in starting pitching and another med adv in offense. Carpenter is starting for Det and we faded him successfully his first time out for an easy winner.
Minnesota Twins over Los Angeles Angels: We will rate the offenses and bullpens equal for this one. However starting pitching we have a med adv. Berrios is a true ace but not being priced as one. Skaggs is a solid middle of the rotation guy. Does not walk many or stike out many but gives up far too many hits with his 274 BAA. Minn is 7-1 when Berrios starts. Berrios has a 209 BAA with a 0.92 WHIP. Minn is 12-5 in their last 17 and have the best record in baseball to date. The gap between these starting pitchers is greater than the posted line.
Atlanta Braves over Arizona Diamondbacks: We will again call the offenses equal and take a small disadv with the bullpens heading into this one. Offsetting this is a med adv in starting pitching. I also fully expect Ariaz to need much more inngs out of their bullpen than Atl for this game. Godley is probably better suited for middle relief. His control is not good with 28K vs 21 BB. Godley has already made 2 relief appearances this week. Fried had to leave early last game after getting hit on the hand. This is an up and coming young left hander. Excellent ratio of 34k only 8 BB.
Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta Braves: We will rate the offenses equal for this one. Conservatively we will have a med adv in starting pitching. Teheran surface stats are good. However his last 3 starts were against Cinci Sd and Mia not exactly offensive juggernauts. Teheran stuff is not the question it is always about control and giving up the long ball. He is a negative regression candidate. Greinke is being Greinke. High strikeouts low walks and a low BAA of 220. If it were not for a bad opening day start against the Lad where he gave up 4 HR is numbers would be outstanding.