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Submitted by rsteel on
Los Angeles Angels over Detroit Tigers: Bard will open for Laa 1-2 inngs and than bring in Pena. Carpenter will pitch for Det and be brought up for a spot start with Ross having a tight back. We will rate the offenses equal. We will have a med adv in SP and a small adv in the bullpen. I have this game at 1.37 giving us excellent value.
Submitted by rsteel on
New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins: We will call the offenses equal for this one. We will get a small adv in the bullpen and fully expect Minn to need their bullpen for more outs than Nyy today. Pineda forst few starts to begin the year coming back from surgery were good. However reality has now arrived. His BAA 316 and has given up 6 HR in only 29 inngs. This is the wrong venue to correct this issue. German is pitching very well. His under the hood numbers are even better than his surface stats. A BAA of 157 and a WHIP of 0.85. Conservatively we have a med adv in starting pitching.
Submitted by rsteel on
Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels: This game will be played at a neutral field in Mexico. Laa will be the home team. We have small adv across the board starting pitching, bullpen, and offense. Miley is in for a small regression but he is keeping the ball down not walking batters and with a strong Houst infield he has been effective. Cahill a sinker baller on the other hand is a mess. 9HR given up so far in only 30.3 inngs of work. When Cahill sinker is not sinking he is very hittable. With the elevation for this game this is not a spot for Cahill to get right sided.
Submitted by rsteel on
Texas Rangers over Toronto Blue Jays: We have a med disadvantage in the bullpen however the gap in starting pitching more than makes up for it still providing us with value. Minor is pitching at an elite level and although he may be in line for some minor regression his under the hood numbers actually have him with an XERA of 2.42. Minor BAA is 179 with an excellent ratio of 39K vs. 12BB. Thornton has been adequate however I do not expect him to go more than 5 inngs and he is giving up a hit per inng. I also give Tex a small adv on offense.
Submitted by rsteel on
Cincinnati Reds over New York Mets: The starting pitching for this game is a complete mis-match but it is not being priced this way. Castillo has been every bit as good as his surface stats. Control has improved and is holding batters to a 168 BAA. Vargas has a 313 BAA 10K and 9BB as well as given up 3HR in only 15 inngs of work. We also have a small adv in the bullpen. Diaz has worked 3 straight days. Nym will likely have to eat more inngs out of the bullpen as well with Castillo expected to much deeper into this game.
Submitted by rsteel on
Saint Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds: We get a buy low sell high situation here. Gray surface stats look not bad. In his 5 starts 2 were against Pitts 1 against Mia weak hitting teams. Meanwhile Flaherty 3 out of his 5 starts were against Mil. There is still nothing wrong with his stuff he has 32K in 24 inngs. I expect a correction coming for both these starters. We get a med adv on offense and a small adv in the bullpen as well. I have this game at 1.49 giving us excellent value.
Submitted by rsteel on
Houston Astros over Texas Rangers: Not often will spot this price on the road but in this case it is warranted. The move for McHugh to the starting rotation has been a good one. Will there be some regression yes but we still get a large adv in starting pitching. Miller arguably is the worst starter at this point even below Bailey. We will call the offenses equal and we also get a large adv in the bullpen. I have this game priced at 2.04 giving us excellent value.
Submitted by rsteel on
New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals: No the Nyy are no where near what they will be with all the injuries. However this has fully been factored in the line today. Bailey is the 2nd worst pitcher in the majors but after 3 starts his numbers look decent. Those starts were at home in the cold masking what he really is BAD! German is probably best suited for middle relief but his stuff is excellent. Control has been an issue early on but last year it was not the case so I assume it is just some mechanics and small sample size.
Submitted by rsteel on
Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers: Trout may or may not be back for this one but regardless the value is with Laa. It is a toss up as to who is the worst pitcher in MLB. That competition wold be Miller vs Bailey in my opinion. Cahill is no stud be his sinker is helpful in Tex he keeps the ball in the park. Laa get a second quick look at Miller. April 7th they faced him and they like what they saw at home. Mill only lasted 2 inngs. Laa also have a med adv in the bullpen and we will call the offenses equal. I have this game at 1.49 giving us excellent value.
Submitted by rsteel on
Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw is the wild card in this one but at this price it is well worth the risk. Kershaw makes his season debut after 1 double A rehab start. He comes back from a left shoulder injury. With a smooth trip I project Kershaw to go 5-6 inngs turning it over to a very mediocre Lad bullpen. Castillo starts for Cinci and he has been superb after 3 starts. His numbers under the hood support his success so far. We will give Cinci a small adv in starting pitching and rate the bullpens and offenses equal.