Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals: Huge take back here in a game I have priced at pick. Wash finally realizing the playoffs are a major long shot traded Murphy and Adams. Strasburg name carries a lot of weight bit he has had a bad year. Strasburg returns after missing almost 1 month with a pinched nerve in his neck. No rehab starts other than a 70 pitch simulated game. We are not asking Eflin to pitch a gem just be average at this point his numbers are right in line with Strasburg giving us a wash for starting pitching.
Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs: Both teams’ offenses are struggling. I also rate the bullpens equal. That leaves starting pitching where the value is. Chatwood will return to the rotation with the injury to Montgomery. Chatwood is actually pitching worse than his numbers indicate. His ERA 5.06 translates to an XERA of 5.42. He has an ugly ration of 85K vs. 90BB. Pitts should have lots of traffic on the base paths with a timely hit allowing them to break out of their slump. Musgrove is pitching as well as his numbers look. 62K vs.
Pittsburgh Pirates over Minnesota Twins: Minn is resigned to the spoiler role after trading away Dozier Lynn and Escobar at the deadline. Pitts is in the playoff mix but they have to string some wins together. Taillon is a former 2nd overall pick. HE is pitching well K’s are there along with control giving up a few too many hits. Odorizzi is a similar type of pitcher just less talent. When you dive under the numbers Taillon is a solid run better per game. We get a med adv in starting pitching and a med adv in the bullpen while I rate the offenses equal.
Arizona Diamondbacks over Texas Rangers: The old man keeps rolling along literally. Colon who Ariz already has seen on 07/31 when they belted him around. Soft tossing no longer a strike out pitcher Colon has a 279 BAA. Greinke is having an excellent year control as always excellent. We get a med adv in starting pitching a small adv in the bullpen and I rate the offenses equal. I have this game at 1.73 giving us excellent value.
Arizona Diamondbacks over Philadelphia Phillies: Phil is having a very good year and Pivetta has been striking out batters at a high rate. However having said all that both Phil and Pivetta have rather large home/away dichotomies. Greinke after a slow start is in excellent form. Not the same dominating CY Young pitcher he once was however not that far off. I will rate the bullpens for this game equal. The offenses overall also equal however Ariz is in better current form. Phil over their last 10 games is hitting 213 vs. RH. I have this game at 1.77 giving us excellent value.
Milwaukee Brewers over San Diego Padres: Two similar pitchers although Richard is LH Anderson RH. Both do not pitch deep into games. Both depend on their defense. Both walk too many. However Anderson is in better form and has at least a small adv over Richard. We will call the bullpens equal both good. The majority of value for this one is on offense. SD has the worst offense against RH pitching. Sd is 2-9 in their last 11. A tie or even a 1 run lead worst case heading to the late innings should allow us to cash this ticket.
Cincinnati Reds over Washington Nationals: We will lose this game more times than we will win however at this price the value is clearly on Cinci and well worth the risk. Worst case the starting pitching is equal. Wash is 7-14 when Roark starts. If this game is at least tied heading into the late inngs the adv swings towards Cinci. We get a med adv in the bullpen. We are not asking Castillo to throw a gem just keep it close. We will give Wash a small adv on offense based n current form. Simply too big a number to lay with Wash.
Atlanta Braves over New York Mets: We get a small adv in the bullpen a small adv on offense while the starting pitching worst case is a wash. Wheeler was rumored to be on the move at the deadline so to still be on this bad NY team not in a playoff race must be disappointing. Wheeler numbers are decent however when he starts NY is 8-12 given their anemic offense. Gausman mentally would be on the opposite side of Wheeler. Traded off that bad Balt team to the middle of a pennant race with a good young Atl team should give Gausman renewed energy.
Oakland Athletics over Toronto Blue Jays: We will take a small adv into this one with the starting pitching. Tor is 12-25 vs. LH. The XERA of Manaea is a run lower than Stroman. However the majority of value is on offense and bullpen. Oak went into a 3 game series at Col and scored 4 runs. That is hard to do and they were in good form heading into that series. 2 games back at home they have scored 16 runs. Go figure. With the trades at the deadline we have also a med adv in the bullpen which should allow us to close this out with minimal drama. I have this game at 1.44.
San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres: No reason not to come right back on SF again today. Rookie Rodriquez has been a pleasant surprise since being called up. SF is 7-2 in the games he has started. A 236 BAA with a very good ratio of 47K vs. 15BB. Richard is a serviceable mediocre left hander. Soft tossing with only 96K vs. 53BB. He has had 2 bad starts since the all star break. This will be the 4th time this year SF will have seen him. SF over 153 AB is hitting 353 off him. SD has lost 6 in a row and are 2-13 over their last 15.