Miami Marlins over Tampa Bay Rays: Getting this much take back where the only adv Tb has is home field provides us with excellent value. Straily has put together 4 quality starts in a row. He gets in trouble when he nibbles and walks too many given he is not a strike out pitcher. However a bad Mia team is 7-7 when he starts. Straily also has a BAA of 234. Eovaldi is a power pitcher who has excellent control. Tb is only 3-6 in the games he has started. Eovalidi is susceptible to the long ball and Mia has hit him well having seen him as recently as the beg of July.
Cincinnati Reds over Saint Louis Cardinals: Stl fired manager Matheny last night. That will have some upheaval today leading to a small part of the value. This is also not a fade against Mikolas whose numbers support his all star spot and how well he has pitched. In fact we backed him last time out. However vs. Desciafani Stl only has a small adv in starting pitching which does not correlate with the current line. We are not asking Desciafani to be perfect just give a solid 5 inngs which he has more time than not.
Chicago Cubs over San Diego Padres: Good value on the visiting Cubs with 2 mediocre starting pitchers. Both have control issues. Chatwood has better road than home numbers. His last 2 starts were horrible with the wind blowing out in Wrigley. Chic is 15-6 vs. LH. Chic 9-4 in their last 13. We will rate the starting pitching and bullpens as equal. The value tonight is on the offensive side where we get a med adv.
Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks: Ariz should not be favored in Col regardless of how small. This will be the 4th start back for Ray. His 1st start back was good the last 2 not good at all. Even when Ray was healthy over 151 AB Col has hit him to the tune of 358. Ray has given up 10HR this year in only 43 inngs of work. That does not bode well pitching in Col. Freeland is not flashy not a fireball strikeout pitcher but he is your standard dependable craft lefty. Col has hit LH at home at a 301 pace so far this year. Wrong team favored.
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants: Cueto has the name however at this time he is not the pitcher of the past. He spent 2+ months on the DL with elbow inflammation. His first start back vs. Stl was not good. Even if he bounces back today Chic has a good value at this line. Sf is 19-18 vs. LH on the year. Montgomery has been much better on the road than at home. He should provide a solid 6 inngs. Bryant is expected back today as well for Chic which should help.
Saint Louis Cardinals over Chicago White Sox: Chic is 2-8 in their last 10 and have lost 5 in a row. Covey had a small good run but the last 3 starts have been horrible. His confidence and form are bad. Mikolas has been a big surprise for Stl. His under the hood numbers just s good as his surface starts. He could use a few more K’s but he does not walk people and has a 232 BAA. Covey has an ugly ratio of 38K vs 24BB in only 50 inngs. We get a med adv in starting pitching. We also have a small adv in the bullpen although Chic is going to need their bullpen much more than STl for this game.
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants: This line opened with Chic as a small fav. That line in my opinion was accurate. Now it is the giants who are favored as all the money has come in on SF. I will fade that money and feel the value is with Chic. Chic is 9-2 in their last 11. Chic is 14-5 vs. LH on the season. Chic offense is in much better form that Sf. I will rate the bullpens equal. The surface stats for Suarez are better than Hendricks at this point. However when you delve deeper they are both pitching with an XERA of 4.03.
Saint Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants: We will rate the offenses equal for this one although Stl is in slightly better form. Sf will have a small adv in the bullpen with Norris a possible no go for Stl. The value is with the starting pitching. Martinez is back in form after 2 good starts vs. Clev and Ariz. Mechanics and injury have his teat to date numbers below his proven ace track record. Samardzija cannot stay healthy. This will be his 1st start since 05/29.
Baltimore Orioles over Minnesota Twins 1st 5 Inngs ONLY: Balt is a mess a horrible team who is 1-9 in their last 10. To ask them to simply win a game would be too much. However with an adv in starting pitching Bundy vs Lynn and getting a take back for them to have a lead after 5 gives us excellent value. Minn is no great team themselves. 2-8 in their last 10 4-12 in their last 16. Offenses we will call equal bullpens we take out of the equation.
Miami Marlins over Washington Nationals: Wash is in such a mess they needed a meeting. Wash is 2-8 in their last 10 shutout 3X in their past 10 and are 5-17 in their last 22. Win or lose with Hellickson on the mound they should not be favored in this range against anyone including Mia. In offense starting pitching and bullpen worst case it is even so the only adv home field. Hellickson will give 5 inngs 3 runs on a normal trip. Lopez has rocketed to the majors. His 1st start very good against the Nym. The nerves will be gone for his second start.