Minnesota Golden Gophers #128 over Iowa Hawkeyes: The Minn defense is not good at all. However they have also played some very good offenses making those numbers even worse. Offensively at home they will take a step down in class tonight with Iowa. Iowa is a decent team good run game but the gap at Qb between Petras and Morgan is wide. Morgan is supported by stud running back Ibrahim. Minn has a balanced dynamic offense. We are not asking the Minn defense to win the game just simply make the odd stop and let the Minn offense force Iowa to play from behind.
Clemson Tigers #401 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 2 market forces keeping this line lower than it should be. Yes Lawrence is out there has been an over compensation for this. Uiagalelei is going to do just fine. In addition he has as support the best RB in the country. #2 It seems to the market Clem struggled against Bost Coll and they did + ND is better than Bost Coll. However that was a look ahead game for Clemthey turned it on when they needed to won and move on. The talent gap between these 2 teams is much bigger than the posted line.
Navy Midshipmen #159 over SMU Mustangs: We faded SMU successfully last week against Cinci at home and will not hesitate to do so again this week. This offense is not the same without Roberson and McDaniel. Navy has played the 46th SOS SMU comes in at 79. Market is expecting SMU to bounce back against last week loss but in my opinion this team is over rated and even if they do bounce back does not mean they cover this big line.
Wyoming Cowboys #142 over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: We have a buy low sell high opportunity. Haw beat Fresno St. last week on the road. Wyo lost on the road in OT to Nev. Haw stayed on the mainland and practiced indoors in Col. Tonight the weather is expected to be around 40 F not exactly what Haw is used to. IN addition they are being asked to win 2 in a row on the road on the mainland before heading home on Nov 7th for their opener. Haw still likes to play at a fast pace but are now a run oriented team rather than pass.
Cincinnati Bearcats #347 over SMU Mustangs: Cinci has been off since 10/03 due to a game cancelled from Covid. SMU is off a OT win on the road against Tulane. There is no denying SMU has a good offense but this will be by far the best defense they will have faced. Cinci struggles on offense but they should get enough done against this weak SMU defense. Conversely look for the Cinci defense to control this game. The line opened pick but the money has flowed in on SMU given offense sells. I made this game pick which gives us value.
ULL Ragin Cajuns #309 over UAB Blazers: Early results can be very misleading. ULL is off a bad loss vs. a very good Coast Car team. UAB beat West Kent last Saturday. The UAB offense is not that good and they are stepping up in class here. ULL has had to deal with Covid early on but they are getting healthy and have had 10 days to prepare for this one. ULL top to bottom the more talented team. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.
Florida Gators #333 over Texas A/M Aggies: It is early but Qb Trask has established himself as a Heisman candidate. Supported by the very dangerous Pitts these 2 have been lethal. The Flor defense has been sporadic I do expect a positive regression as well this unit has an excellent pass rush. Conversely Tex A/M has not been able to put any pressure on the opposing Qb. Qb Mond has played well but his 2 biggest weapons opted out before the season started. I priced this game at 6.5 giving us excellent value.
Charlotte 49ers-Florida Atlantic Owls #149 Over: The weather is Boca Raton is supposed to be hot humid rain with light wind. Flor Atl will be playing their first game. I expect both defenses to wear down as the game progresses. Flor Atl has a new coach new def co-ord and have turned over the majority of the defense. Look for growing pains to say the least. Flor Atl does have a strong run game which will open up some opportunities through the air against a weak Charl secondary. I expect this game to be relatively close which will help our cause as Charl should play fast with Reynolds at Qb.
Iowa State Cyclones #431 over TCU Horned Frogs: ISt has played 1 game on Sept 12th and were upset by ULL 31-14 so their stock is low. What we do know is they have a very good defense. It was special teams that let them down in that loss. On offense boring methodical not explosive but grinding on the ground should be enough to cover today. TCU will play their 1st game after the game for Sept 11th was cancelled. 2 Qbs Duggan and or Downing will be up against it vs. ISt defense along with their own offensive line issues.
Arkansas State Red Wolves #427 over Kansas State Wildcats: We won backing Ark St as a +18.0 on the road in Mem and were rewarded. We will not hesitate to come back on them today. Our cover vs. Mem was never in doubt that game was much closer than the final score. Now Ark St goes on the road again to K.St. Yes we are getting less points but Mem is better than K.St. K. St roster has been in flux since practices began. They have zero players returning from the offensive line. Ark St has 1 game under their belt and had 11 spring practices K.