South Alabama Jaguars over Bowling Green Falcons: Both teams struggled down the stretch. BG defense has been poor all year highlighted by the fact the MAC also had a down year. BG had much bigger bowl aspirations heading into this year so motivation to perform today is a serious question.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Georgia Bulldogs: Simply too many points for this interstate rivalry. Home field adv is minimal. Both teams have excellent offenses. Both teams move the ball very well on the ground. GT is off a bye.
Baylor Bears over Oklahoma State Cowboys: This will be the biggest spot we lay this year in NCAAF and it is warranted. This game is a complete mismatch. When you have the #1 offense in the nation you are at home and play very fast this line and points have a way of shrinking very fast.
Louisville Cardinals over Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The name ND combined with freshman QB Bonnafon has this line at a point that creates value. Louis is off a bye giving their QB more time to get settled. Bonnafon is not spectacular but a good athlete and is able to manage the game. ND had big aspirations which were crushed in their loss to Flor St back on Oct 18th. They are still hungover from that. A terrible loss last week at home to Nwestern in OT compounded by a horrible coaching decision has ND 1-3 s/u in their last 4.
Maryland Terrapins over Michigan State Spartans: First we get the ranked team on the road spotting substantial points. Mary comes in off a bye. For Mary this home game represents their championship for the year. Attempting to knock off Mich St the focus determination will be there even if they are the less talented team. QB Brown 6th year senior a dual threat will provide some headaches for Mich St.
Florida State Seminoles over Miami Florida Hurricanes: Hate laying road points with a ranked team vs. home unranked however given minimal home field adv still getting value in the line we make an exception. I do not expect this to be easy but I have this line at 4.5 so the value is obvious.
Vanderbilt Commodores over Florida Gators: Flor is coming off a huge victory over Georgia. They have another big game on tap next week. This is a prime let down look ahead spot. Flor has turned to freshman QB Harris. At this stage of his career he is simply a game manager. Hand the ball off or run the ball yourself. With this big a spread that will work to our adv continuing to move the clock.
Texas El Paso Miners over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Much was expected of WKent this year but at 3-5 they have severely underperformed. The markets have not adjusted.
Oklahoma Sooners over Baylor Bears: You will need to get your calculator out for this one. There will be defensive stops rarely. Markets love to bet on flashy high scoring teams and Bay is at the top of that list. However coach Stoops historically has had a plan at least to slow them down. On defense stuff the middle make them throw to the outside. Now of course having a plan and the players to execute are 2 different animals.
North Carolina Tar Heels over Miami Hurricanes: This is simply too many points. Offensively NCar can stay with Mia. NCar after 3 horrible games especially defensively after turned things back around in their last 2 games. I expect this to be a high scoring game and Mia is definitely going to eat up yards on the ground however at this high a spread that will also help us with the clock.