Houston Texans over Los Angeles Chargers: As we faded Lac 1st home game and covered with Indi we will not hesitate to do so again this Sunday. Lac have a minor home field adv. Lac have cluster injuries in the 2ndary and this is the wrong team to be facing depleted trying to defend the pass. Houst may have the most talented deepest group of receivers in the NFL. The Houst stock is low given what looks like an unimpressive win at home over Jax. 2 items to that. Houst was off that very tough N.O loss.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 in NFL brings many over-reactions from week 1. This game falls in that category. Sea travels east for an early start. Sea has New Orleans up next for a look ahead. Sea won their home game 21-20 over Cinci but is was not impressive. Sea was +2 in turnovers. They were outgained 429-233. The whole world watched as Pitts was destroyed on Sunday night by NE 33-3. I expect a bounce back and for these reasons they are under priced this week. I have this game at 5.5 giving us excellent value.
Minnesota Vikings over Atlanta Falcons: 2nd year for Cousins at the helm and with an improved offensive line I do expect him to take a step up this year. Rb Cook is healthy strong receiving core with Thielen and Diggs. Added is Doctson from Wash who Cousins is familiar with. The def remains very good and should be even better. They simply were asked last year to spend too much time on the field. Atl with Ryan will again have a strong passing game Freeman is solid at Rb.
Indianapolis Colts over Los Angeles Chargers: Lac have a minimal home field adv as was evidenced last year. Gordon continues to hold out. Rivers is another year older with minimal mobility. This line is simply an over-reaction to the Luck retirement. No Brissett is not Luck but he is more than an adequate game manager. Brissett started 15 games for this team in 2017 when they had a weak offensive line that has been improved greatly. Pass rusher Houst has come over from Kc a very good addition. I have this game at 3.5 giving us excellent value.
Green Bay Packers over Kansas City Chiefs: Gb played in Winn on Thurs. Kc played at home Sat so 1st adv Gb. Gb has a competition for QB #2 Kizer vs. Boyle. They also have a competition left for RB #3. With Henne out Shurmur is clearly #2 with Kc and Litton #3. I prefer the late Qb rotation of GB over Kc. I have this game at 1.65 Gb win for the value.
Buffalo Bills over Detroit Lions: Buff has looked sharp so far in the pre-season. The opposite could be said for Det. Buff has outscored Ind and Car combine 51-30. Det has issues especially on the offensive line. They will be going up against a very good Buff defense who for the most part was together last year. Stafford has not taken a snap yet in pre-season. Given Det also has a new off co-ord that is an issue. I do not see Stafford playing much. Coming off an injury from last year and issues protecting the QB they are not going to take any unnecessary risks.
New York Giants over New York Jets: This will game will be played in the Meadowlands so technically they are both playing at home but NYG will be designated the home team. Both head coaches Gase and Shurmur are trying to establish winning cultures so no adv here. The Nyj already have some substantial injuries. WR cluster injuries, RB Montgomery along with RB Bell who is trying to work his way back. In addition the offensive line so they are not going to risk injury here to Darnold.
Denver Broncos over Atlanta Falcons: Neutral site Canton Ohio for the annual hall of fame game. Atl defense was horrible last year mainly due to injuries. I do not think their keys guys will lay much if at all on that side of the ball. Ryan and Schaub are veterans who will likely see little to no snaps tonight. That leaves Benket who is completely raw for the majority of work. Conversely Den has a new head coach Fangio and new off-coord Scangarello. Flacco will not see any action.
Los Angeles Rams over New England Patriots Super Bowl LIII: By the time you get to the Super Bowl everything that can be said has been. Everything that can be analyzed has been. Obviously it is the most scrutinized game in all of sports every year. Having said this the demise of Ne has been talked about often for the last 5 years. All Ne continues to do is win. The constants Brady and Belichick and that has not changed. Having said all this the books opened Lar at -1.0 on this neutral field. Money poured into Ne where it is now Ne -2.5 and may go to 3 before game time.
Kansas City Chiefs over New England Patriots AFC Championship game: Even on the road anytime you want to back the combo of Brady and Belichick you are going to pay a premium. We will call the offenses equal for this game. However they do go about their business differently. Kc has more weapons and they are more explosive. NE depends on short passes and ball control on the ground with Michel.I do expect NE to have success running the ball but if they do fall behind as I expect they will that patience will be tested.