Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens: We won with Balt last week so this is not a complete fade on them. If not for the miracle hail mary by Ariz Buff would be on an 11 game s/u win streak. Buff is 8-1 at home only loss was to Kc. Yes Balt will be able to move the ball on the ground. Yes very likely Jackson is going to break off 2-3 big runs. However will it be enough. Buff has a huge adv in the passing game. If Balt falls behind this is not a team built to do so. Balt has played the 29th ranked strength of schedule Buff 11th.
Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: There is no denying how good the Tenn offense is. However Balt historically has done a good job containing Henry. Conversely Tenn defense has stopped no one all year. The Balt offense has been in positive regression since a very slow start to the year. Balt should be able to put pressure on Tannehill. I expect a high scoring game and I expect the Balt defense to get some key stops that the Tenn defense simply is not capable of. I made this game 4.5 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: The big narrative for this game is will Goff start at Qb for Lar. Who cares Goff is not very good anyway Wolford brings a run dimension and not that much of a downgrade. This area is not where the value lies. Mcvay vs Carroll big adv Lar. The Sea offense has regressed badly since they went back to a run 1st focus. Sea lacks a pass rush which helps if Goff starts. He can be effective given time and not forced to move around. Despite all this yes Sea has an overall adv on offense.
Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: Goff is so inconsistent but at this price and the lack of Sea pass rush we should get the good Goff. We get a buy low opportunity with Lar in a bounce back situation off the embarrassing loss to Nyj. Sea is still being priced like when they were rolling earlier in the year. This team especially the offense has regressed badly since focusing more on the run. I rate the offenses equal but the Lar have a substantial adv on defense. Sea is ranked 26th overall defensively while Lar are ranked 1st.
Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49er’s: This time of year throw the narratives of teams NEED to win and that team will NOT try have given up. #1 just because a team needs to win does not mean they will or more importantly cover. Secondly they are all professionals getting paid lots of money playing for next years contracts. They are all trying. Having said all this a team out of it that falls behind in a game have trouble finding the energy to fight back. Also individual players prep work depending on the players suffers. Which brings us to this game.
Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints: This is not so much a fade on NO asa play on with Kc. NO obviously has the adv on defense and NO will be able to move the ball with the run game and short passing. However the question becomes will they be able to keep up with Kc? Kc has issues on the offensive line so I expect Mahomes will need to use his mobility and scrambling which is when he is at his best anyway. I do not expect Brees to be at his best and he will also be without his #1 receiver Thomas. Kc has been a bankroll burner all year.
Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens: It is a must win for Balt in their drive to the playoffs and that has the line inflated along with the fact to start the season Balt beat Clev 38-6. Both items have no impact on the result for tonight. Like Pitts who wore down in the 2nd half last night for Balt this will be their 3rd game in 13 days. Balt offense got on track last game but big deal that was Dall. These 2 teams mirror each other both strong run games both good at stopping the run. I made this game pick-em giving us excellent value.
Buffalo Bills over Pittsburgh Steelers: Pitts is off their 1st loss so there goes the undefeated season. Is this a bounce back spot or a let down we will see? Crowd or no crowd Buff is a tough place to play. Pitts def is very good ranked 3rd overall but they will likely be without 4 LB’s Spillane, Williams, Dupree and Bush. Secondly their stats have come against some very weak offenses. The Buff offense may be the best they have seen. This will be the 3rd game in 11 days for Pitts.
Los Angeles Rams over New England Patriots: Give Goff time to throw he can be an effective passer. Lar are Top 5 in offense and defense. Ne has little balance on offense. Ne is 30th ranked in passing 3rd in rushing. Lar are excellent at stopping the run. In addition if Ne falls behind how do they come back through the air? Ne last 2 wins against Ariz (we lost that game) they had 84 yards Lac they had 69 yards while most of the points for Ne came from special teams. The name reputation of Ne and Belichick have this line lower than it should be.
Atlanta Falcons over New Orleans Saints: Atl has played much better especially on defense since Quinn was fired. T Armstead, DE Davenport, CB Jenkins allout for N.O. as of now. Lastly we get Ryan over Hill at Qb while getting points. Hill is not a good QB. He is unique but not a QB. In addition this will be the 2nd time in 3 weeks Atl will face him. I made this game a pick giving us excellent value.