Pittsburgh Steelers over Los Angeles Chargers: At 8-3 give the Lac and Rivers all the credit in the world. However what that has done is make Pitts undervalued at home. WE have a warm weather west coast team playing Sunday night in Pitts. They will do so without Rb Gordon and that is a big loss not fully factored into the line. Lac have 1 signature win against Sea and even that is debateable. SD SOs is 30th. This will be their toughest game of the year thus far. Pitts is off a misleading loss in Den.
Minnesota Vikings over New England Patriots: We backed Minn at home last week against the elite QB Rodgers and now they hit the road to face the best in Brady. Anytime you bet on Ne you pay a premium given their appeal. Rightfully so and many times they overcome the premium and reward their backers. However value is value and I have this line at 3.5 hence the bet. Zimmer wants more balance on offense and with a healthy Cook this should keep Ne defensively off balance. Ne is ranked 25th in pass defense while Minn is ranked 7th in pass offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over San Francisco 49’ers: Well at least we did not lose with Tb last week but got a rather fortunate push. Regardless it was the same old same old. Move up and down the field turn the ball over and horrible red zone execution. Tb goes back to Winston who looked sharp in the second half last week. Tb still has the #1 offense in total and through the air. Sf is off a bye and will get an early start on the east coast. Mullen the rookie will get his third start but 1st on the road. Sf will have success moving the ball especially on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings over Green Bay Packers: Gb is 0-5 s/u on the road. This will be their 4th road game in 5 weeks. GB has Rodgers and he is still one of the best although hobbled by a troublesome knee. TE Graham and WR Cobb are also both banged up. That leaves main go to target Adams. However the real problem for Gb is in the 2ndary. It is likely due to injury they will be starting 3 rookies. I expect Cousins going to Thielen, Cook and Diggs to all have big games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New York Giants: Ok 3 strikes your out. We have lost the last 2 weeks backing Tb. However that is irrelevant. It has nothing to do with they owe us or chasing. Value is value and they have value. Nyg will be on a short week winning Monday night in SF. It took a Td with 1 min left to pull it out. That was against A Qb in Mullens undrafted who Nyg could not stop. Now enters Tb veteran Fitzpatrick and yardage wise this is the #1 offense in the league. Tb lost at home to Wash in the most misleading result of the past week. Minus 4 T/O will do it.
Seattle Seahawks over Green Bay Packers: Thursday night football is a huge challenge always for the travelling road team on a short week. It is even more daunting this week for Gb. First off they are not healthy including go to WR Cobb. Secondly this will be Gb 4th road game in 5 weeks going back and forth west coast eat coast and now back to west coast. Even under the best conditions Sea has a substantial home field adv. A Thurs prime time lone game that adv increases. Sea is healthier than they have been all year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Redskins: We lost a ticket last week backing Tb over Car. This will not deter me from backing them again this week as a small favorite. Much is made of how bad the Tb defense is and yes they are bad. However the Wash offense is ranked 26th so they are not exactly a offensive juggernaut. Tb is prolific on offense. Ranked number 1 in pass offense Fitzpatrick has many weapons to move the ball. Wash is ranked 20th in pass defense. Despite falling behind last week big Tb did not quit and were actually late only down a Td.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Carolina Panthers: Fitzmagic is back. Tb performs better with the veteran at the helm. He is a gunslinger and the Tb offense is prolific. The rushing attack is improving as well with Barber. Car is methodical grind on the ground with Newton and McCaffrey. They are not a quick score offense that will help them cover this big a line. Tb is ranked #1 on offense overall and in the pass where Fitz has many weapons down field. Tb has played the 3rd ranked strength of schedule while Car comes in a 13. I have this game at 4.0 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Rams over New Orleans Saints: This is by no means a fade against NO very good team obviously and even extra tough at home. However in a game the Lar simply have to win to cash that is where the value lays. The offenses are both very good but the edge goes to Lar. Lar are simply more balanced Gurley is having an excellent year. WR Kupp is expected to return for this game. Defensively however the Lar are much better Lar are ranked 8th overall No 23rd. Lar also added Fowler this week to go along with Suh and Donald which creates an intimidating pass rush.
New York Jets over Chicago Bears: The Nyj and Darnold stock is the lowest it has been and legitimately so. However that is the time to buy low. Chic is improving but it is 1 thing to bet them taking points another when they are spotting this much a role they have not been accustomed to for a long time. I am sure they will try and pressure Darnold force him to make mistakes and that will work to a point. Mack however is slowed by injury. Trubisky is erratic and prone to mistakes as well.