Submitted by rsteel on
San Francisco Giants over Milwaukee Brewers: Mil is 12-14 on the year when a LH starts. Sf has been better on the road than at home this year. Anytime you bet on SF you are concerned about them scoring enough runs. However the reality is they have been playing much better of late. SF is 8-2 in their last 10. Mil is 8-15 in their last 23. Mil offense has struggled for some time. Given current form we will rate the offenses equal. Hader pitched 2 inngs and threw 26 pitches last night. We will also rate the bullpens equal. What we do have is a med adv in starting pitching. No Bumgarner is not the pitcher he once was. However still plenty good 111.6 inngs pitched 115K and only 24BB. His under the hood numbers just as good as surface stats. Conversely Davies is a 5 inng pitcher strikes out very few walks too many. With a 3.07 ERA you go under the hood his numbers translate to an XERA of 4.21. I have this game at 1.05 giving us excellent value.