Middle Tennessee St. Raiders over Minnesota Golden Gophers: In an era of one and done Mid Tenn as a mid-major is an anomaly. 6 players are back from the run last year. Sr guard Springs out for Minn is a huge loss not fully factored in this line. Yes Midd Tenn play in Conf USA and no doubt Minn from the big ten has played the more difficult schedule but Mid Tenn has won 20 of their last 21. For our purposes seedings are virtually irrelevant but it is telling for this game you have a 12 favored over a 5. I have this game at 3.5 giving us excellent value.
Monmouth-NJ Hawks over Mississippi Rebels: The NIT is tricky because so much comes down to motivation. Who wants to be here? Who had bigger aspirations of the big dance? For Mon this is big and to get a home game they will be motivated and do have the talent to get by what will be a somewhat uninterested Miss team. Mon went 13-1 s/u at home. They were 19-3 in the cong. Granted there was no comparison of strength of schedule. Miss comes in at 68 Mon comes in at 227. However motivation home court and a Miss team who went 4-6 on the road gives us the value.
Every year I am asked for advice regarding filling out your brackets and pools for the NCAAB tournament. Not only is March madness great and presents us with betting opportunities but it also means baseball is about to begin. Let me get the most obvious statement out of the way first. When filling out your brackets the MOST important thing is to pick the eventual champion. Start at the end of your bracket and work backwards. Most pools are weighted to the elite 8 and beyond.
Georgia St. Panthers over Troy Trojans: These 2 teams will battle for the Sun Belt championship. Both teams won on the opponent’s home court during the regular season. Troy relies heavily on the 3 point shot. If they are dropping obviously they become a tough out. However G. St. is good at defending the perimeter and they have the adv on the inside. G. St also played the more difficult schedule through the season. I have this game at 4.0 giving us excellent value.
Chicago Blackhawks over Detroit Red Wings 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Howard will get his 1st start in goal for Det since Dec 20th when he went down with an injury. Det were sellers at the deadline and will miss the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. Chic had a 7 game win streak snapped at home last night losing to Ana 1-0. It was hardly a poor performance after being off 4 days. The dominated the game outshot Ana 43-26 and ran into a hot Bernier. Playing on zero days rest has not been an issue for Chic going 9-2-1 on the year.
Indiana Pacers over Charlotte Hornets: Part of the inflated line Ind played yest aft won a buzzer beater against Atl. Ind has not done well on zero days’ rest. However in this case they had 3 days’ off prior to yest. Charl returns home from a 7 game road trip. They have not played at home since Feb 13th. Charl ranks 29th in off fg % . In a game that I expect to go down to the last possession as to the s/u winner the points provided give us excellent value. It also helps that Geroge is heating up again as well.
Obviously filling out a bracket is a different beast than handicapping individual games of the tournament with point spreads. Next week’s grapevine I will help you with your bracket this week we will deal with the spreads. 1) Forget about the conference tournaments underway. March madness is a different beast. There is no carryover of momentum for teams that performed well in those tournaments. In fact some coaches could care less about those tournaments and focus on getting their teams ready for the big dance. 2) March madness games are held on neutral courts or are they?
Calgary Flames over Detroit Red Wings 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: Not prepared to get off this Cal train yet. Even at this price at home we get value. Cal is in full playoff push 5 wins in a row 10-2-1 in their last 13. Det is not used to being in this situation. They were sellers at the trade deadline and the playoffs are not likely. They traded their #2 scorer in Vanek. The road trip continues tomm in Edm. Cal can ill afford to take this team lightly and with the NYI on tap in 2 days there is no look ahead just win tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves over Utah Jazz: Usually it is Ut that takes adv of their altitude and home court adv. Tonight it is reversed. Ut will play its’ 4th game in 6 nights after a tough game last night at OKC. Ut is 5-7-1 ATS with zero days’ rest. Ut now takes on a young Minn team waiting for them. Minn is just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. No doubt Ut has a big adv in defense for this one. However Ut also plays at the slowest pace at home making these points offered even more substantial. I have this game at 4.5 giving us excellent value.
Calgary Flames over Los Angeles Kings 1st 60 Minutes ONLY: We successfully played on as a gog Cal in their last game of the 5 game road trip in Car. Cal has won 4 in a row and went 4-0-1 on said trip. Usually a team returning from a road trip you do not play on but given the current form of Cal the improved play of Elliot and being able to spot less than home ice adv we get excellent value. Lak played last night in Minn lost in OT 5-4 after blowing a 3rd period lead. This will be La 4th game in 6 nights. Lak are 3-7 in their last 10 and 5-5-1 on zero days’ rest.