Rick Steel's betting tips


The Grapevine will contain my week-to-week sports betting analysis on the sports we handicap and the sports betting industry.

Welcome to the daily grind

WOW we are already over 6 months into our 2022 betting year. I am in my 24th year of doing this as my primary source of income. All that means is I am old. Before you know it, football will be starting up again. Where does the time go?

Use social media to your advantage

In order for you to remain mobile following me on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, allows you to be notified of a new pick(s) have been posted rather than you having to constantly check. Following me on social media will ensure you do not miss any plays and help you get the best line possible. If you wait too long after I release a pick(s) to bet the line likely will have moved against you losing potential value.

Work Life Passion

Work does not have to be a 4-letter word when you really enjoy what you do for a living. Nothing is perfect everything has its’ pluses and minuses. However, whatever you do have passion energy pride enthusiasm in your efforts. You cannot always control the outcomes but you can always control your effort. Enjoy the process as much as possible to avoid burnout.

Sports betting is an intellectual pursuit. It is staying one step ahead of the markets it is constantly challenging forcing you to adjust and adapt.

Value in sports betting is EVERYTHING

A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite, you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.

Set your expectations

Shocking news most casual bettors do not make a profit from sports betting. This is not a terrible thing. If every bettor won there would be no sports books, they would be out of business. However, as we know the sports book just acts as a broker. The good news and why sports betting is so advantageous you are not competing against the sports books you are competing against other sports bettors. The sports book simply takes the money from the losing bettor’s passes it on to the winning bettors and keeps their cut.

Snapshot of sports handicapping

Sports handicapping is a fluid market of competing bettors risking money on the probability of an end result to occur. The challenge prior to the event is to accurately calculate if you have an edge (in other words value) over the betting market.

A bettor needs to ask what is the probability of this outcome to occur rather than do I think this team will win or not. Focusing on who will win or lose is NOT handicapping. Ignoring the line, the price is NOT finding value.

In order to really know what sports handicapping is we must mention what it is NOT:

Establish your foundation to success

There is NO cookie cutter model to follow in sports betting to guarantee success. What works for one person may not work for another. What I do suggest is handicap from a position of your strengths while improving in areas you think will help you find value more effectively.

However, do not confuse the above with what I preach on an ongoing basis and that is the key principles that bettors NEED to follow in order to succeed. Call them foundations for success regardless of the sports you bet.

Post game reviews of wagers

I am sure most of you have heard the phrase the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

 So how does this relate to sports betting? Well as I have mentioned often it is very important to evaluate as objectively as possible your bets after the fact.

You have 3 choices once one of your bets have gone final.

Continuous process improvements increase profits

As regular readers of my grapevine have heard before sports handicapping is so much more than number crunching to spit out value. When you analyze the box scores the stats the current form of teams constantly ask yourself:

What is real an emerging pattern that will likely continue? Conversely what is not real and is a pattern that will regress to the mean?

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Rick Steel's betting tips | Professional Sports Handicapping

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