The Grapevine will contain my week-to-week sports betting analysis on the sports we handicap and the sports betting industry.
Submitted by rsteel on
With the MLB season 4 days away, we will continue our discussion on how to have a profitable season.
There is a sweet spot in MLB lines from -1.40-1.80 where the public is hesitant to lay the juice. Making picks in this range where appropriate is a common place to find value. In this area you find undervalued favorites which sometimes should be priced -2.00-2.50.
A pitcher who does not get strikeouts and/or ground balls is subject to big innings.
Submitted by rsteel on
We are now less than 2 weeks away from the start of the regular season of MLB. YES!
Baseball represents the highest dollar amount EVERY year of our total dollars bet. There are 2,592 regular season games. This volume far exceeds any other sport providing us with the most betting opportunities.
Baseball also has a tendency to be streakier than any other sport we bet. It is a long long season a marathon not a sprint. There will be extended winning and losing streaks. Stay on an even keel buckle up the ride will be well worth it.
Submitted by rsteel on
Every year I am asked for advice regarding filling out your brackets and pools for the NCAAB tournament. Not only is March madness great and presents us with betting opportunities but it also means baseball is about to begin.
Submitted by rsteel on
Obviously filling out a bracket is a different beast than handicapping individual games of the tournament with point spreads.
Next week I will talk about strategies for filling out your bracket/winning your pool.
Remember it is Ok to pass on games regardless how exciting the March madness games are. Remain vigilant in ONLY betting value. If you want action on a game for entertainment purposes, put some pizza money on it for fun that is OK if you must personally, I do not even do that. I will watch to scout the game as I do in all sports for future betting opportunities.
Submitted by rsteel on
It baffles me when ignorant individuals comment about being degenerate betting such events as pre-season NFL or MLB spring training. It is a true indication they have no concept of sports betting. Value is value regardless if there is weakness in a line for the Super Bowl or Detroit vs. Kansas City in a March baseball game. The money is the same.
Submitted by rsteel on
What do you believe is your biggest personal challenge to success in sports betting? For most it is something different unique to their personality. Let me know if I can help you overcome this obstacle.
Regardless if you participate in this business full or part time, regardless if you want to make serious money a secondary income or treat it as entertainment (no one likes to lose money) a big dose of PATIENCE must be included.
Submitted by rsteel on
I am not trying to put a damper on your enthusiasm however the Super Bowl is 1 game the last game of this football year. However regardless of the fact, even if I do bet this game, I still just risk 1 unit.
I draw the comparison to New Year’s Eve where everyone comes out to party. Everyone has an opinion on the game and the wild props that are available to bet. For me it is just 1 bet over the course of 100’s that I make through the year. It is no different than a Wednesday night MLB bet I would make in July. The money is exactly the same.
Submitted by rsteel on
There are very few absolutes in sports betting/handicapping since it is predicting events played by humans. What we do know over large sample sizes, simulations using accurate meaningful data we can predict if the sports book odds and market movement has brough the event to a number we can bet and make money long term. In other words, +EV.
Submitted by rsteel on
Long time followers are familiar with the below information. I like to post this once a year for a reminder and also for new bettors joining us. It really does nicely summarize put in perspective what to expect minimizing surprises.
You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are never due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the crux of the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot, they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
Submitted by rsteel on
We are now nicely into the 2023 betting year. This is a good time to deal with the expectations of this business. Next week we are going to deal with the laws of probability as the topic for the grapevine. For those of you that are new this will introduce you to the nuts and bolts of this business. For long term followers next week’s grapevine will act as a refresher. This week we will continue topics on the mental aspect of this business.