You are never as hot as you think you are. Your luck is never as bad as you think it is. You are never due to win. Now that we have this out of the way we can get to the crux of the issue. Gamblers think when they get hot they are invulnerable. They think the laws of probability do not apply to them.
We are now nicely into the 2021 betting year. This is a good time to deal with the expectations of this business. Next week we are going to deal with the laws of probability as the topic for the grapevine. For those of you that are new this will introduce you to the nuts and bolts of this business. For long term followers next week’s grapevine will act as a refresher. This week we will continue the topic of the mental aspect of this business.
I am not trying to put a damper on your enthusiasm however the Super Bowl is 1 game the last game of this football year. However regardless of the fact, even if I do bet this game I still just risk 1 unit.
Get comfortable being uncomfortable. One of the hardest aspects of betting sports is dealing with variance. I know most of you have heard this before BUT to emphasize no matter how sharp how good you are at this craft there will inevitably be bad stretches over an extended sample size reminding you to stay humble and adhere to proper money management.
Being a full time sports bettor as long as I have this business has taught me many valuable lessons that I use in life. However the most important characteristic would have to be PATIENCE. This was my major weakness heading into this business and I either had to adapt implement patience as part of my discipline or fail miserably.
Sports betting for a living is often depicted as a roller coaster thrill ride based on big decisions and life changing wins. Nothing could be further from the truth.
So you want to be a serious sports bettor well?
It will teach you money management.
It will force you to control your emotions.
Your patience will be tested over and over again.
You will become an expert on probabilities.
Intuitive reading comprehension (reading between the lines) and research skills will be honed
Many times it will have you question the meaning of life.
So I guess we can all agree sports betting is a very good thing!
The NHL regular season gets underway this week. As is the case with the NBA it will be a unique season given the start date, number of regular season games to be played the division realignment etc. For those of you that have been following me for a while this Grapevine will act as reminder for those of you new please take note. I am not interested in risking money on a 4 on 4 overtime which is basically shinny or even worse a shootout which is nothing more than a glorified skills competition.
With the shortened and condensed NBA 2021 schedule injuries and load management will become even bigger factors in your handicapping. Remember the key is to dig deep search even anticipate who will and will not be playing. The information is out there if you work at it. You want to bet BEFORE this knowledge is well known in the market.
I would assume I speak for all of us to state that 2020 both personally and sports betting professionally was challenging to say the least. The first 3 months started “normal “enough although we were showing a small loss by the end of March. We were then forced into a 4 month pause. As the lights came back on activity and sports leagues picked up we hit a nice groove.
I know the official calendar does not change to 2021 yet however since we close off our weeks on Sunday for betting record keeping purposes Monday December 28th will be day 1 week 1 of our 2021 sports year.
Like everything else at this point it will be a unique NBA season. This week and in 2 weeks (next week will be a year-end recap) grapevines will deal with the upcoming season from a betting perspective. I am thankful we will have a season and games to bet on.