Rick Steel's betting tips


The Grapevine will contain my week-to-week sports betting analysis on the sports we handicap and the sports betting industry.

Pros vs Joes avoid recent bias

With the NFL regular season nicely underway this week is a good time to remind you about the danger of overreacting. Nowhere is this a greater problem than with the NFL. Do not be a Joe be a Pro.

Bettors remember the most recent games and results and draw conclusions for their next bets based on this information. In the NFL that is 1 lousy game in other sports it is 1 lousy week. DO NOT overreact every team has clunkers or even a series of bad games even the best teams. More times than not you will find value on the team set for a bounce back.

Education of a sports bettor

The education of a sports bettor never ends. With the arrival of analytics and the ever evolving expanding and sophistication of sports data it is expand adapt in order to survive.

Bettors who ignore or disregard the latest betting market adjustments will get left behind. Sports bettors who had an edge even just 1 year ago can watch their advantages disappear if they do not stay one step ahead of the markets.

Follow the masses you will lose. The majority overestimate their ability to handicap games successfully.

Support PSH via Patreon

As most of you are aware I have been approached countless times over the years to sell my picks. I would NEVER do this and all you have to do is read last week’s grapevine for ALL the reasons why.

However the hours I put in day after day all year are huge to generate value bets. The costs to operate the site maintain the android and apple apps are substantial. Therefore I am always on the lookout for methods people can use to support PSH.

To date you can do so:

NEVER NEVER pay for picks

It is that time again the busy fall season around the corner NCAAF NFL starting up soon NHL NBA with MLB stretch run taking place. It is also the time when ALL the low life’s return from climbing out from under their rocks.

Value is value price is everything

A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.

What is sports handicapping?

Sports handicapping is a fluid market of competing bettors risking money on the probability of an end result to occur. The challenge prior to the event is to accurately calculate if you have an edge (in other words value) over the betting market.

A bettor needs to ask what is the probability of this outcome to occur rather than do I think this team will win or not. Focusing on who will win or lose is NOT handicapping. Ignoring the line the price is NOT finding value.

In order to really know what sports handicapping is we must document what it is NOT:

Ready for some football?

Believe it or not the 2019 NFLX schedule is about to get underway. We will bet the occasional NFLX game although our tolerance for value (our line vs. the line at the sports book) is higher. There are some years where the results of NFLX outperform that of the regular season. It is the one time where the head coaches tell you exactly their game plan. QB rotation how long the starters will play what areas they want to focus on etc. etc.

Tips for you sports betting business

* EGO, most successful people have one. Call it competitive edge wanting to be the best you can be, pride etc. Conversely the arrogant loud boastful outright liars they are the ones to avoid in every aspect of life. They know the least and are generally very insecure. I did not invent sports betting. I am not the best most talented in the industry. However over the years I have acquired the characteristics that I harp on in grapevines that allow me to be successful in this business. I adapt I am open to new ideas. I am very confident in my ability to handicap.

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