Believe it or not the 2021 NFLX schedule is about to get underway. We will bet the occasional NFLX game although our tolerance for value (our line vs. the line at the sports book) is higher. There are some years where the results of NFLX outperform that of the regular season. It is the one time where the head coaches tell you exactly their game plan. QB rotation how long the starters will play what areas they want to focus on etc. etc.
As we inch closer to the fall and football season towards a busy time I think it would be helpful to review my mission statement motto call it what you want “Sports betting as a business” I suggest you have a mission statement for yourself summarizing what you want your overall goal for sports betting.
In every sport as the season moves along handicapping adjustments need to be made however in baseball the adjustments are more pronounced in my opinion.
The weather heats up means the ball travels farther scoring goes up. The games become more and more important the pressure increases especially with the added wild card. More teams will remain in the race longer teams and players that are not used to playing important games in September. Look for teams that have the experience dealing with races coming down to the wire as well as managers that have been through the wars.
The close of the baseball menu Sunday will bring us to the all-star break. Monday July 12th up to including Wednesday July 14th there will be no games (at least the sports I bet on) no plays. I will be tweeting throughout this period. There is 1 game on Thursday July 15th so we will see but I will update the website and app on that day.
Work does not have to be a 4 letter word when you really enjoy what you do for a living. Nothing is perfect everything has its’ pluses and minuses. However whatever you do have passion energy pride enthusiasm in your efforts. You cannot always control the outcomes but you can always control your effort. Enjoy the process as much as possible to avoid burnout.
Sports betting is an intellectual pursuit. It is staying one step ahead of the markets it is constantly challenging forcing you to adjust and adapt.
A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.
With the advances in technology and the development of my own processes live betting has become a bigger portion of my overall portfolio.
Shocking news most casual bettors do not make a profit from sports betting. This is not a terrible thing. If every bettor won there would be no sports books left they would be out of business. However as we know the sports book just acts as a broker. The good news and why sports betting is so advantageous you are not competing against the sports books you are competing against other sports bettors. The sports book simply takes the money from the losing bettor’s passes it on to the winning bettors and keeps their cut.
Sports handicapping is a fluid market of competing bettors risking money on the probability of an end result to occur. The challenge prior to the event is to accurately calculate if you have an edge (in other words value) over the betting market.
A bettor needs to ask what is the probability of this outcome to occur rather than do I think this team will win or not. Focusing on who will win or lose is NOT handicapping. Ignoring the line the price is NOT finding value.
In order to really know what sports handicapping is we must mention what it is NOT:
There is NO cookie cutter model to follow in sports betting to guarantee success. What works for one person may not work for another. What I do suggest is handicap from a position of your strengths while improving in areas you think will help you find value more effectively.
However do not confuse the above with what I preach on an ongoing basis and that is the key principles that bettors NEED to follow in order to succeed. Call them foundations for success regardless of the sports you bet.