The Sunday morning grapevines email will be moving to the you tube channel psh sports picks. This will be the last one.
You will find the grapevine topics in the betting advice playlist.
These videos provide you with the nuts and bolts on how to be a successful profitable long-term sports bettor. These videos are obviously less time sensitive than the picks videos. I highly encourage you to check out the library of videos in this playlist.
The difference between being highly profitable or losing money in this business is razor thin. In a micro example 11-9 every 20 plays +1.1 units = big money. 10-10 every 20 plays -1.0 units eventually your bankroll grinds to zero. I know the above is a simplistic example but over a large enough sample size that is exactly what happens.
This week we will focus on some points relating to NCAAB. Early in the season you want to look for teams that have had low turnover of key personnel. Also look for teams that have participated in a summer tournament like the teams that travel to Canada Australia etc. These teams will be well ahead of the curve in terms of chemistry, experience and having played together. Look for teams that have a strong experienced point guard. This is the equivalent to a quarterback in football.
In the era of load management NBA starting line ups (who is in who is out) for each game becomes that much more important before you place a bet. The long NBA season is filled with injuries and the new craze load management. Keep in mind basketball more than any other sport including football quarterbacks 1 player makes a huge difference. Reason being there are only 5 players on the court at 1 time and key players play usually 80+% of the game.
Let us take a look at some key areas to in order to effectively handicap. For this grapevine we will focus on the numbers side not the situational side. However, remember the intangibles like travel, injuries, motivation, revenge, look ahead, let downs etc. are all equally as important as the numbers.
I like to focus on offensive defensive FG% and points per possession. This really deals with efficiency. Just looking at points for and against can be misleading. Just because you are putting up many shots and scoring points does not indicate success.
People who bet for a living are monitoring the lines all day long every day. If you are doing this part time you need to find someone you trust who you can follow 100% of the time; especially if your goal is to generate a full-time income at some point in this business.
The NHL regular season gets underway this week. For those of you that have been following me for a while this Grapevine will act as a reminder for those of you new please take note. I am not interested in risking money on a 4 on 4 overtime which is basically shinny or even worse a shootout which is nothing more than a glorified skills competition. Could you imagine an MLB game tied being decided by a home run hitting contest because that is the equivalent. Therefore, if the game is tied after 60 minutes and we are on the money line the bet is a push.
Career success is measured by how much you enjoy what you do. The optimum is to look forward to your work enjoy the process of problem solving. That in essence is our function with sports betting.
Always try to get better. This business like most is always evolving and changing. Adapt to succeed. Never stop learning and growing.
The only thing that can stop you is you. Have a passion for what you do and eventually the money will follow.
There are so many similarities between conventional investment techniques and sports betting. When to purchase when to sell equally important in both endeavors.
If you like the dog usually better to bet it closer to game time. If you like the favorite there is usually no upside to waiting bet it now. This is not a hard and fast rule but is the norm to betting at the best odds. As you gain experience in this business you acquire a better feel when to place your bets in order to maximize value. No one times the market perfectly all the time no matter how long you do this.
Betting for a living is often depicted as being about big-decision moments and the highs of pulling off life-changing wins. The reality could not be more different. Bettors need to work hard, learn quickly and be disciplined in order to succeed. Patience is also an essential trait for any serious bettor.