The Grapevine will contain my week-to-week sports betting analysis on the sports we handicap and the sports betting industry.
Submitted by rsteel on
With the NFL regular season kicking off shortly this is a good time to remind you about the danger of overreacting. Nowhere is this a greater problem than with the NFL however it applies to all sports. Do not be a Joe be a Pro. Recency bias is betting based on the most recent game or 1 weeks of games in other words small sample sizes.
Submitted by rsteel on
Recently my website pshltd.com was hacked. There is no personal info on the site so overall it should be of no concern to anyone. It is more of an inconvenience as we work on fixing it.
Submitted by rsteel on
As we head into our busy fall season the importance of shopping and acquiring the best line possible when you bet cannot be overstated.
It does not matter what the $ value is of your unit. Successful sports bettors know the value of half a point on the spread or a penny on the money line. Successful bettors will be on the right side of a half point victory more times than not. They will win when others push and they will push when others lose. When a line has moved against them, they know to pass on the game not to chase the line.
Submitted by rsteel on
The college football season is about to get underway so a good time to review some of the basics of betting this sport.
As is the case with all sports the handicapping begins the minute after the final game is played of the prior season. With all the movement that takes place during the off-season players, coaching staffs; if you think that you can handicap look for value 1 week before a sports season begins and get off to a good start while others have been looking at the rosters, lines, articles for months you are sadly mistaken.
Submitted by rsteel on
We all know the key to successful handicapping is to find value. I will talk about this highly misunderstood word “value” in sports betting in an upcoming grapevine. In a macro simplistic rule of thumb what you want to do; when everyone is jumping on a team you want to get off. When everyone is jumping off a team, they are down on for a recent performance you want to jump on them whenever possible. This is what investing is all about. Buy low sell high I am sure you have all heard that before.
Submitted by rsteel on
Believe it or not the 2023 NFLX schedule is about to get underway with the hall of fame game already completed. We will bet the occasional NFLX game although our tolerance for value (our line vs. the line at the sports book) is higher. There are some years where the results of NFLX outperform that of the regular season. It is the one time where the head coaches tell you exactly their game plan. QB rotation how long the starters will play what areas they want to focus on etc. etc.
Submitted by rsteel on
In every sport as the season moves along handicapping adjustments need to be made however in baseball the adjustments are more pronounced in my opinion.
The weather heats up the ball travels farther scoring goes up. The games become more and more important the pressure increases especially with the added wild card. More teams will remain in the race longer teams and players that are not used to playing important games in September. Look for teams that have the experience dealing with races coming down to the wire as well as managers that have been through the wars.
Submitted by rsteel on
1) Being Under Capitalized. Do not be disillusioned to think you can make a full time living on a minimal bankroll.
2) Not having enough sports book accounts funded whereby you are not getting the best number available. Betting -1.20 when -1.14 is available is just burning money.
3) Not following proper money management procedures. There is no such thing as a lock in this business. Risking more than 2% of your bankroll on a game will guarantee you will not be around long term.
Submitted by rsteel on
Do not be worried about betting against public opinion. Look for over and under reactions to recent games. Being a contrarian in this business helps you find the value and money.
Do not play catch up “chasing” by increasing your wagers when losing.
What you save is what you earn. Shop! Shop! Shop! Have a minimum of 5 sports book accounts to ensure you get the best lines possible regardless of the size of your bets. Everything is relative.
Submitted by rsteel on
The close of the baseball menu Sunday will bring us to the all-star break. Monday July 10th up to including Thursday July 13th there will be no games (at least the sports I bet on) no plays. I will be tweeting throughout this period.
I am not whining far from it but I am up every day at 4:30am 7 days a week putting in long long hours especially through the fall and winter months when the schedule is heavier handicapping games monitoring lines for value. These are the ONLY 4 days off I get all year.