I am a numbers guy and I cannot even count the number of times I hear the expression this team is due to win. What I can tell you if you make bets based on a team DUE to win you will be waking up in the DEW because you will not have money for a roof over your head.
The team due to win is usually a high profile team with a solid track record. A team currently playing below perceived expectations. You want to avoid these teams at all costs until they bottom out and then buy back in at bargain basement prices in other words value.
Value is such the buzzword whenever you talk about the fundamentals of sports betting. However what really does it mean? In the most simplistic terms it is betting the right team at the right price. To achieve long term success in this business you cannot have one without the other.
If the best team won every time out we all would be millionaires already. When you have the discipline focus patience and obsession to find the value on a daily basis combine this with strong money management skills you are well on your way.
In the pre-historic age of sports betting information was at a premium prior to the internet. The serious sports bettor had a big advantage if they were able to get out of town newspapers and or contacts in various cities.
Fast forward today and even the most casual bettor has access to a vast amount of information from anywhere in the world to help them make educated informed bets. However with this technology comes a danger. Yes the playing field is now completely level unlike the stock market.
First to answer my own question. It is NEVER a bad time or too early to talk baseball. Do you realize within a couple of weeks pitchers and catchers report for spring training? In my opinion no other sport has a greater anticipation for opening day than major league baseball. The beginning of spring and the 162 game marathon over the hot summer months that make up the season concluding with the drama of the fall classic.
We all know in sports betting there are NO situations that work all the time. There are also NO situations on their own without other reasons that would constitute a bet. Finding a spot that consistently wins 55% of the time well that is something to focus on.
One of the worst angles misnomers is to bet on teams that “need” to win vs. a team that has little to play for. Guess what the line is always inflated on the team who has much on the line. So much so that playing the other team who is relaxed and going to just let it all hang out is where the value is. ALL the pressure is on the team needing the win. Just look at the results most recently from week 17 of this year’s Sunday NFL. Specifically look at SD and Mia.
Sports betting as a business” it is on the header of my website it is on every page of my website. From day 1 even in the not so successful times I approached sports betting from this perspective.
Since this is the 1st grapevine for 2014 and for the people that are new I should lay the groundwork for you. With me there are no bells and whistles. There are NO locks NO games of the year NO ridiculous claims. What you do get is honesty integrity and accurate records along with realistic expectations. What you do get is consistent long term profits.
I know the actual calendar has 2 days left in 2013 however for sports betting bookkeeping purposes today represents the last betting day. We close off every week on Sunday nights. We track our overall stats as well as the same stats broken down for each individual sport. The overall stats are closed off and started anew every calendar year while the individual sports stats are closed off when that sport ends for a particular season.
Handicapping college football bowl games is a different animal than the regular season.
A common misconception of the inexperienced sports bettor is what the point spread represents. The myth is that the point spread is a prediction of who will win and by how much. The other myth is the line splits the betting action equally on both sides. This also rarely happens which is why the line is constantly moving after it is posted to attract money to one side or the other.