Submitted by rsteel on
With the NFL regular season kicking off shortly this is a good time to remind you about the danger of overreacting. Nowhere is this a greater problem than with the NFL however it applies to all sports. Do not be a Joe be a Pro. Recency bias is betting based on the most recent game or 1 weeks of games in other words small sample sizes.
How many times have you asked yourself how can a team look so so good 1 game and horrible the next? It happens all the time. It is called bounce back and/or positive-negative regression to the mean. The games are played by humans on a field not by robots and not on a spreadsheet. When you take a contrarian approach to sports betting you lower the chances of recency bias.
It is important to stay up to date with your depth charts per team. Players who are hurt who are the replacements. Look for situations where the replacements are not big drop offs in talent. The public will overreact to who is missing not taking into account who is replacing them. Of course, cluster injuries to the secondary or on the offensive defensive lines also need to be closely watched. When you are going 3 and 4 levels deep in your depth chart will present additional challenges.
Look for coaching staffs and rosters that have had consistency and little changes to have advantages early on.
Bettors remember the most recent games what they have watched on TV and results and draw conclusions for their next bets based on this information. In the NFL that is 1 lousy game in other sports it is 1 lousy week. DO NOT overreact every team has clunkers or even a series of bad games even the best teams. More times than not you will find value on the team set for a bounce back.
Matchups and situations dictate new evaluations every week and every game. Put last game bias aside consider the result but do not let it override all your objective analysis.
Pros bet numbers Joes bet teams.
Pros only bet when they have value Joes need action.
Pros protect their bankroll only risking a small fraction of their bankroll Joes risk too much on individual games.
Pros handle losing streaks bad beats they stay calm confident in their process. Joes go on tilt chasing losses.