In season Adjustments to Betting NCAAF & NFL

I often hear bettors say at around the half way point all the value is gone from the lines. Like most things you “hear” about in the sports betting arena the perception is wrong.

Stats/Information: Yes there is much more stats and personality of teams have been established. This information is available for both the book and the bettor obviously. Strengths and weaknesses of teams can easily be identified. However what stats are real what are not strengths of schedule plays a big role. What teams will positively and negatively regress? These are all areas you can capitalize off public misperceptions you could not do at the beginning of the year.

Weather: This becomes a much bigger issue with the cold weather and more importantly winds have a factor. Not just on totals but spreads as well. A weak punter becomes more of an issue with a strong wind. A team more dependent on the pass will have a tougher time moving the ball in high wind bad weather situations. How about a warm weather team travelling to a cold weather team for a given week. All factors that were not prevalent early in the year and often overlooked by the public market.

Injuries: In the brutal physical game of football this list grows every week. Look especially for the injuries that stay under the radar but are still very important. Offensive lines defensive lines and center. Cluster injuries where more than 1 is present for a position or area line the secondary. In some instances the team could be 3-4 levels deep in personnel.

Coaching: Who are the coaches that excel in the second half? Coaches who know how to make adjustments and adapt to their team’s personalities and strengths. Conversely teams that have underperformed and now the coach is on the firing line. Does the pressure change his approach? Have the players quit on him?

Teams playing out the stretch: Football is the most emotional physical game we handicap. That undermanned big dog that competed early in the season despite being down big in a game just does not have the mental fortitude and energy in the gas tank to do so later in the year. Team’s and players quit all the time especially later in the season. 

In the technology age we are in everyone from joe public, the line maker, and the professional full time bettor have access to the same information. It is how we interpret, utilize this knowledge to calculate value which will ultimately determine if you are profitable long term or not.