In season Adjustments to Betting NCAAF & NFL
Submitted by rsteel on
I often hear bettors say at around the half way point all the value is gone from the lines. Like most things you “hear” about in the sports betting arena the perception is wrong.
Subscribe for weekly betting tips and become a winning bettor.
Submitted by rsteel on
I often hear bettors say at around the half way point all the value is gone from the lines. Like most things you “hear” about in the sports betting arena the perception is wrong.
Submitted by rsteel on
Career success is measured by how much you enjoy what you do. The optimum is to look forward to your work enjoy the process of problem solving. That in essence is our function with sports betting.
Always try to get better. This business like most is always evolving and changing. Adapt to succeed. Never stop learning and growing.
The only thing that can stop you is you. Have a passion for what you do and eventually the money will follow.
Submitted by rsteel on
The NHL regular season gets underway this week. For those of you that have been following me for a while this Grapevine will act as reminder for those of you new please take note. As detailed on the NHL page of my website, ALL NHL bets are for regulation time ONLY. I am not interested in risking money on a 4 on 4 overtime which is basically shinny or even worse a shootout which is nothing more than a glorified skills competition. Could you imagine an MLB game tied being decided by a home run hitting contest because that is the equivalent.
Submitted by rsteel on
With the NFL regular season nicely underway this week is a good time to remind you about the danger of overreacting. Nowhere is this a greater problem than with the NFL. Do not be a Joe be a Pro.
Bettors remember the most recent games and results and draw conclusions for their next bets based on this information. In the NFL that is 1 lousy game in other sports it is 1 lousy week. DO NOT overreact every team has clunkers or even a series of bad games even the best teams. More times than not you will find value on the team set for a bounce back.
Submitted by rsteel on
The education of a sports bettor never ends. With the arrival of analytics and the ever evolving expanding and sophistication of sports data it is expand adapt in order to survive.
Bettors who ignore or disregard the latest betting market adjustments will get left behind. Sports bettors who had an edge even just 1 year ago can watch their advantages disappear if they do not stay one step ahead of the markets.
Follow the masses you will lose. The majority overestimate their ability to handicap games successfully.
Submitted by rsteel on
As most of you are aware I have been approached countless times over the years to sell my picks. I would NEVER do this and all you have to do is read last week’s grapevine for ALL the reasons why.
However the hours I put in day after day all year are huge to generate value bets. The costs to operate the site maintain the android and apple apps are substantial. Therefore I am always on the lookout for methods people can use to support PSH.
To date you can do so:
Submitted by rsteel on
It is that time again the busy fall season around the corner NCAAF NFL starting up soon NHL NBA with MLB stretch run taking place. It is also the time when ALL the low life’s return from climbing out from under their rocks.
Submitted by rsteel on
A common myth in handicapping is you should only play dogs and somehow if you bet a favorite you are a square. People value is value. If you are handicapping a game and your line is -2.50 or -9.5 points and the lines at the book are -1.95 or -8.0 respectively guess what you have excellent value play them BOTH. Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Take the money and move on.
Submitted by rsteel on
There are many similarities handicapping NCAAF and NFL as well there are many differences. Much like starting pitchers in baseball the QB in football can make or break your bets.
Submitted by rsteel on
Sports handicapping is a fluid market of competing bettors risking money on the probability of an end result to occur. The challenge prior to the event is to accurately calculate if you have an edge (in other words value) over the betting market.
A bettor needs to ask what is the probability of this outcome to occur rather than do I think this team will win or not. Focusing on who will win or lose is NOT handicapping. Ignoring the line the price is NOT finding value.
In order to really know what sports handicapping is we must document what it is NOT: