NBA load management

In the era of load management NBA starting line ups (who is in who is out) for each game becomes that much more important before you place a bet.  The long NBA season is filled with injuries and the new craze load management. Keep in mind basketball more than any other sport including football quarterbacks 1 player makes a huge difference. Reason being there are only 5 players on the court at 1 time and key players play usually 80+% of the game.

The NBA has instituted a new rule in an attempt to prevent star players from sitting out. It is more team fines than anything else so I am skeptical this rule change will be effective. Regardless just because you are not sure who will play who will be out is not an excuse to not bet early if you determine value. If you wait closer to game time for confirmation it is too late the value will be gone. Anticipate predict research the likely of who plays who does not. Sometimes you will be right sometimes you will be wrong. That is Ok as long as you are right more times than not.

Last year I anticipated Donic out line had him in when I bet it. He did not play I got fantastic CLV. I lost the game. However, my process was great result not so much for this 1 game sample size. 

 Pay attention to the injuries that matter ignore the injuries that are irrelevant. The public generally over reacts when a high-profile player goes down. However, when key role players go down or there are cluster injuries at one particular position you generally do not see the necessary impact on the line.

Accurately valuing injury situations are critical for any handicapper. It has nothing to do with how good the player actually is but how replaceable that player is with the current roster.

Remember teams that are without their superstar at least for the first game have a tendency to step up while at the same time the opposing team may be taking them lightly. However few teams can carry that forward for any length of time with role players having to play extended minutes is never a recipe for long term success.

We are highlighting the injury issue for NBA because that sport has just begun however realize the fundamentals apply to all sports. It is however more pronounced in basketball both college and pro because the nature of 5 key players playing the majority of minutes.

With any injury situation with any team in any sport you always have to ask yourself has the injury been accurately reflected in the line. Usually, the markets will OVER react so look whenever possible to play the team WITH the injury. Lastly do not ignore the total on the game. Often the line for the side has been adjusted accurately but the total has not.

It is also often a good move to anticipate who may sit who may play and place your bet based on your educated assumption. No different than a backup goalie in hockey likely to play on a back-to-back a player like James or Leonard not unusual for them to sit vs. a lesser opponent on the road off a back-to-back.

The key in all of the above try and anticipate react BEFORE the market does. Secondly determine has the line been accurately adjusted based on roster situations.