Sports handicapping is a fluid market of competing bettors risking money on the probability of an end result to occur. The challenge prior to the event is to accurately calculate if you have an edge (in other words value) over the betting market.
A bettor needs to ask what is the probability of this outcome to occur rather than do I think this team will win or not. Focusing on who will win or lose is NOT handicapping. Ignoring the line the price is NOT finding value.
In order to really know what sports handicapping is we must document what it is NOT:
- Look at the odds.
- Isolate what teams you think are too low or too high.
- Analyze the stats to support your “feeling”
- Bet based on the above
What sports handicapping IS:
- Project the probability of both sides of a game.
- Convert the probability to a price.
- Compare your price to the best line at the sports books
- Bet or not bet accordingly.