Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers: Hot vs. cold here. Cinci has won 6 in a row Ml has lost 5 in a row. We will have a small disadv on offense although Cinci has underperformed so far on offense and is due for some positive regression. We will rate the bullpens equal. Starting pitching we have a med adv. Cinci will send their ace Castillo to the mound. He is having an excellent year to date. 103K in 87.6 inngs of work only given up 7HR and holding opponents to a 175 BAA. Chacin depends on his defense and control does not strike out many. He has been susceptible to the long ball already given up 12HR in 62.6 inngs of work. Opponents are hitting 263 of him. I have this game at 1.18 giving us excellent value.