Submitted by rsteel on
Cincinnati Reds over New York Mets: The starting pitching for this game is a complete mis-match but it is not being priced this way. Castillo has been every bit as good as his surface stats. Control has improved and is holding batters to a 168 BAA. Vargas has a 313 BAA 10K and 9BB as well as given up 3HR in only 15 inngs of work. We also have a small adv in the bullpen. Diaz has worked 3 straight days. Nym will likely have to eat more inngs out of the bullpen as well with Castillo expected to much deeper into this game. The numbers at this moment have Cinci with a small disadv on offense although Cano is questionable again tonight. I also think Cinci is on the cusp of a positive regression on offense. I have this game at 1.33 giving us excellent value.