Submitted by rsteel on
Handicapping is a constantly evolving process. Year by year season by season even game by game. Rules change market perceptions change sports book strategies change. The only constant is change.
Some people are under the impression handicapping is nothing more than a number crunching formula driven exercise which punches out plays. Nothing could be further from the truth. If the better team or better pitcher won and covered every game we would all be rich.
One of the biggest mistakes made in handicapping is to over react to one result. Seeing a team do very well or for that matter very bad in 1 game and draw conclusions will commonly find you on the wrong side in the next game.
In my opinion the most successful handicappers are the ones that adhere to the 50-50 rule. 50% of my decision making process is weighted to the numbers with the focus on the last 5 games of results. The other 50% is weighted to the intangibles such as psychological, situational, travel, under the radar injuries, head to head matchups, weather, coaching and many other issues. These so called intangibles have to be converted to a numerical value individually +/- from your original base number you calculated from the statistical side. This final number is YOUR line. Compare your line to the books line and if there is a wide enough variance presto you have VALUE!
While you are moving along this process on a game by game basis you should constantly be asking yourself have the factors you are considering that are moving YOUR line been accurately depicted in the books line.
Remember handicapping is NOT about simply determining which team will win the game and cover. It is picking the right team at the right price at the right time.