Submitted by rsteel on
There are very few absolutes in sports betting/handicapping since it is predicting events played by humans. What we do know over large sample sizes, simulations using accurate meaningful data we can predict if the sports book odds and market movement has brough the event to a number we can bet and make money long term. In other words, +EV.
- Avoid narrative-based analysis. For example, revenge, must wins, useless trends, angles. These were created by touts to sell their picks. They are meaningless worthless.
- CLV. Closing line value is very important. It is NOT the be all and end all it does not ensure an individual winner but it is long term an indication you know what you are doing. You are effectively line shopping you are effectively timing the market and you are isolating games of value.
- Vegas knows. Trap lines. Vegas does not KNOW! Trap lines do not exist. Vegas does the work from their side of the counter and obviously they are sharp. They know what they are doing. However just like it is your job they gather information they run the numbers and post a number. It is than up to the market where the line goes. The sports book is not your enemy other sports bettors are your competition.
- Public vs sharp money. What does this even mean anymore. Who is the public who is the sharps. Secondly even if you can separate who can trust whose money it is. You want to be on the sharp side. Even if you try the line will not be the same. What happens when you have sharps on opposite sides of a game. It happens all the time. This complete area is a place to completely avoid and meaningless to your long-term success.
- NEVER pays for picks. Once you get past the cost which you will never be able to overcome in order to turn a profit you have an insurmountable challenge. The tout you are paying is not just giving the picks to you. Even if you find the unicorn that is a winning tout you are NOT going to be able to bet at the same lines they bet at. Just like Vegas does not know touts know less than you often.
Focus on your process being the best sports bettor you can be. Stop wasting time on who/what is on the other side. Put in the time put in the work learn the craft if this is what you want to devote yourself to. Yes, the markets are tighter than ever before but there are also many more new opportunities opening up all the time given the technological advances. Props markets, live in game betting plus much more on the horizon.