Submitted by rsteel on
Saint Louis Cardinals over Miami Marlins: Mia had a brief taste of success when their offense came to life. However they have reverted to what they are. Mis has lost 5 in a row scoring a total of 9 runs. Stl is a positive regression candidate on offense when not sure but even without we get a small adv against this opponent. We also get a med adv in the bullpen. Hernandez gets the start and call up for Mia with the injury to Smith. Hernandez has done well at AAA but in brief stints in the majors he has not been good. Hudson is an extreme ground ball pitcher who limits damage since he gives up too many hits and walks. The flip side he does not give up home runs and gets many double lays. When you have a weak hitting team like Mia who will have to string hits together to score and they are free swinging not taking a lot of walks this is a bad match up. Hudson has 5 quality starts in a row. We get a med adv as well in starting pitching. I have this game at 1.61 giving us excellent value.